---
title: "Fitness Star case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fitness Star ($3.90) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 108.95% from 36 items with odds, observed 108.75% over 18.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/41
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Fitness Star](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/41)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Fitness Star

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/41?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/41?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/41) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/41?window=all)

Price · $3.90 · 3.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 108.95% · EV $4.25 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 108.75% · 18.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 110.54% ±8.77 2,116 openings

7 days · 107.52% ±3.23 15.6K openings

30 days · 108.75% ±2.98 18.6K openings

since tracking started · 108.75% ±2.98 18.6K openings

101.0% 110.5% 120.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/41?window=24h) | 2,116 | 110.54% ±8.77 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/41?window=7d) | 15.6K | 107.52% ±3.23 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/41) | 18.6K | 108.75% ±2.98 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/41?window=all) | 18.6K | 108.75% ±2.98 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $153 153 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 18 | 18.6 | 0.97× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $108 108 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 44 | 28.0 | 1.57× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $66.65 66.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 26 | 37.3 | 0.70× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $50.59 50.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 45 | 46.6 | 0.97× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $42.49 42.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 40 | 46.6 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 222 | $22.86 22.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 76 | 83.9 | 0.91× |
| [P90 \| Tiger Pit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $19.10 19.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 92 | 93.2 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $18.59 18.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 65 | 93.2 | 0.70× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $14.27 14.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 108 | 111.8 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $13.60 13.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 102 | 111.8 | 0.91× |
| [MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $13.16 13.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 128 | 130.5 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $12.14 12.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 137 | 130.5 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $11.51 11.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 103 | 130.5 | 0.79× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $9.40 9.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 158 | 149.1 | 1.06× |
| [MP9 \| Music Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $7.91 7.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 166 | 167.8 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $6.83 6.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 294 | 298.3 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $5.10 5.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 404 | 372.8 | 1.08× |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $4.32 4.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 144 | 559.2 | 0.26× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| XOXO (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-xoxo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $4.20 4.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 849 | 838.8 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.07 4.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 968 | 932.0 | 1.04× |
| [MP5-SD \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.79 3.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 907 | 932.0 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $3.49 3.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 934 | 932.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.42 3.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 923 | 932.0 | 0.99× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.37 3.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 924 | 932.0 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.32 3.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 1,121 | 1118.5 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $3.11 3.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 1,094 | 1118.5 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $2.82 2.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 1,112 | 1118.5 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $2.64 2.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 1,088 | 1118.5 | 0.97× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.59 2.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 1,121 | 1118.5 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $1.79 1.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 944 | 932.0 | 1.01× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.66 1.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 928 | 932.0 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.64 1.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 753 | 745.6 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-steel-sentinel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.51 1.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 777 | 745.6 | 1.04× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.32 1.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 583 | 559.2 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.19 1.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 462 | 559.2 | 0.83× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1.03 1.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 476 | 466.0 | 1.02× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=41)

[MP5-SD | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-nitro-minimal-wear) [I cant breathe](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/I%20cant%20breathe) $3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.79 3.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.97x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[MP5-SD | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-nitro-minimal-wear) [Halo5078](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Halo5078) $3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.79 3.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.97x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Nitro (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-factory-new) [B.A.R.S.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/B.A.R.S.) $3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.37 3.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.86x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) [I cant breathe](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/I%20cant%20breathe) $3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.32 3.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.85x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) [Halo5078](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Halo5078) $3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.82 2.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.72x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) [B.A.R.S.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/B.A.R.S.) $3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.32 3.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.85x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-field-tested) [Mandy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Mandy) $3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.64 2.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.68x 2026-11-11 15:47 UTC

[SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-factory-new) [Mandy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Mandy) $3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.07 4.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.04x 2026-11-11 15:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) [Lion](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Lion) $3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.42 3.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.88x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) [Lion](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Lion) $3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.42 3.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.88x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $3.90 | 108.95% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $3.90 | 108.91% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $3.90 | 109.62% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.1% covert 0.6% gold 0.3% #d32ee6 0.5% Mil Spec Grade 8.5% restricted 17.5% classified 6.4% mil spec 7.6% industrial 5.6% Classified 4.5% blue 10.0% Uncommon 5.0% #8847ff 5.0% Industrial Grade 5.0% violet 17.0% blueLight 4.0% Rare 2.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 109.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $108.95 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt