--- title: "C-Virus case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "C-Virus ($4.90) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 106.36% from 30 items with odds, observed 106.13% over 16.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/43 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [C-Virus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/43) # [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · C-Virus A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/43?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/43?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/43) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/43?window=all) Price · $4.90 · 4.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT Advertised RTP · 106.36% · EV $5.21 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 106.13% · 16.2K openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 105.13% ±7.69 1,913 openings 7 days · 106.05% ±2.87 13.7K openings 30 days · 106.13% ±2.64 16.2K openings since tracking started · 106.13% ±2.64 16.2K openings 97.0% 105.3% 113.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/43?window=24h) | 1,913 | 105.13% ±7.69 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/43?window=7d) | 13.7K | 106.05% ±2.87 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/43) | 16.2K | 106.13% ±2.64 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/43?window=all) | 16.2K | 106.13% ±2.64 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $141 141 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 20 | 16.2 | 1.24× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $125 125 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 19 | 24.3 | 0.78× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $62.45 62.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 40 | 40.5 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $52.27 52.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 77 | 64.8 | 1.19× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $42.24 42.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 50 | 48.6 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $39.02 39.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 56 | 64.8 | 0.86× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $18.34 18.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 65 | 80.9 | 0.80× | | [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $13.20 13.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 83 | 80.9 | 1.03× | | [MP7 \| Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $11.81 11.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 113 | 129.5 | 0.87× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $10.15 10.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 149 | 145.7 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $8.46 8.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 189 | 194.3 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $6.98 6.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 241 | 242.8 | 0.99× | | [P2000 \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $6.53 6.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 292 | 323.8 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-malachite-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5.46 5.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 515 | 485.7 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.44 5.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 680 | 647.6 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-royal-consorts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $5.21 5.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 815 | 809.4 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.84 4.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 768 | 809.4 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $4.78 4.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.5% | 973 | 971.3 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Dry Season (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dry-season-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.75 4.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.5% | 1,004 | 971.3 | 1.03× | | [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $4.75 4.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.9% | 1,087 | 1052.3 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $4.34 4.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.8% | 1,110 | 1133.2 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $4.24 4.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.7% | 1,122 | 1133.2 | 0.99× | | [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $4.09 4.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 955 | 971.3 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $3.67 3.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 1,003 | 971.3 | 1.03× | | [Galil AR \| Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $3.40 3.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 972 | 971.3 | 1.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $3.16 3.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 959 | 971.3 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-teclu-burner-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.88 2.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 793 | 809.4 | 0.98× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.30 2.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 690 | 728.5 | 0.95× | | [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.06 1.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 672 | 647.6 | 1.04× | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.01 1.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 677 | 647.6 | 1.05× | Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=43) [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) [Ethiamach1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ethiamach1) $4.90 4.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.30 2.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) [Danjgem](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Danjgem) $4.90 4.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.06 1.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [MP7 | Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-factory-new) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $4.90 4.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.81 11.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.41x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [MP9 | Dry Season (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dry-season-field-tested) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $4.90 4.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.75 4.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.97x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) [♥Kanvo1d♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%99%A5Kanvo1d%E2%99%A5) $4.90 4.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.09 4.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [P2000 | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-factory-new) [blandi#rustysaloon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/blandi%23rustysaloon) $4.90 4.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.53 6.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.33x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-minimal-wear) [Ðēåđ\_şĥøŧ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C3%90%C4%93%C3%A5%C4%91_%C5%9F%C4%A5%C3%B8%C5%A7%E2%84%A2) $4.90 4.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.67 3.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-teclu-burner-field-tested) [Noru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Noru) $4.90 4.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.88 2.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Malachite (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-malachite-field-tested) [ImmortalSquash](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ImmortalSquash) $4.90 4.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.46 5.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.11x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) [Noru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Noru) $4.90 4.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.06 1.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $4.90 | 106.36% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.1% rare 0.1% restricted 31.8% classified 7.4% Industrial Grade 0.5% industrial 0.9% violet 1.2% mil spec 6.0% #8847ff 3.0% Rare 4.0% Mythical 27.0% consumer 6.0% #4b69ff 6.0% Legendary 6.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 106.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $106.36 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt