---
title: "Devil case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Devil ($5.95) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.10% from 31 items with odds, observed 91.86% over 14.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/44
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Devil](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/44)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Devil

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/44?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/44?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/44) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/44?window=all)

Price · $5.95 · 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 93.10% · EV $5.54 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.86% · 14.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.14% ±5.53 1,683 openings

7 days · 92.32% ±2.07 12K openings

30 days · 91.86% ±1.89 14.3K openings

since tracking started · 91.86% ±1.89 14.3K openings

83.0% 89.3% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/44?window=24h) | 1,683 | 89.14% ±5.53 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/44?window=7d) | 12K | 92.32% ±2.07 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/44) | 14.3K | 91.86% ±1.89 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/44?window=all) | 14.3K | 91.86% ±1.89 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 11 | 14.4 | 0.77× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $78.10 78.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 20 | 21.5 | 0.93× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $45.35 45.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 45 | 50.2 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $37.06 37.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 66 | 64.6 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 182 | $30.44 30.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 78 | 78.9 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $27.59 27.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 80 | 86.1 | 0.93× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $18.91 18.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 106 | 114.8 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $16.38 16.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 127 | 122.0 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $12.47 12.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 121 | 136.3 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Parallax (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-parallax-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $11.27 11.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 143 | 172.2 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $7.78 7.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 310 | 287.0 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $7.46 7.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 307 | 301.4 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $6.86 6.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 371 | 387.5 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $6.26 6.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 607 | 574.1 | 1.06× |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $6.25 6.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 646 | 645.8 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $6.11 6.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 682 | 660.2 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $5.87 5.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 660 | 674.5 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $5.75 5.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 713 | 688.9 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $5.35 5.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 745 | 717.6 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.15 5.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 726 | 717.6 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $4.49 4.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 847 | 861.1 | 0.98× |
| [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $4.14 4.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 847 | 861.1 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.73 3.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 864 | 861.1 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $3.43 3.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 844 | 861.1 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Old Roots (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-old-roots-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.07 3.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 814 | 861.1 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.89 2.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 735 | 717.6 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.76 2.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 705 | 717.6 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.45 2.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 732 | 717.6 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.80 1.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 521 | 516.7 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.70 1.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 453 | 430.6 | 1.05× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.61 1.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 426 | 430.6 | 0.99× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=44)

[Galil AR | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-minimal-wear) [Enter Amano](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Enter%20Amano) $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.35 5.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.90x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) [fujiaprista](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fujiaprista) $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.43 3.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.58x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[Souvenir M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-converter-field-tested) [G3](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/G3) $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.76 2.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.46x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) [Enter Amano](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Enter%20Amano) $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.47 12.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.10x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[Souvenir M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-converter-field-tested) [m0stlЭn](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/m0stl%D0%ADn) $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.76 2.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.46x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[Galil AR | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-minimal-wear) [destinyX92](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/destinyX92) $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.35 5.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.90x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-minimal-wear) [kaktus](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/kaktus) $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.61 1.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.27x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[SG 553 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-minimal-wear) [Gra4](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gra4) $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.25 6.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.05x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[Tec-9 | Isaac (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-minimal-wear) [gado](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/gado) $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.75 5.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.97x 2026-11-11 15:47 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) [gado](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/gado) $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.45 2.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.41x 2026-11-11 15:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $5.95 | 93.10% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% covert knife 0.3% restricted 21.1% mil spec 6.2% classified 6.2% Mythical 6.0% Restricted 1.2% pink 14.4% Classified 4.0% industrial 4.5% Rare 10.0% violet 11.0% Industrial Grade 6.0% Uncommon 6.0% #8847ff 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.10 on average: an expected loss of $6.90 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt