---
title: "Agent Johnny case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Agent Johnny ($6.85) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 101.14% from 29 items with odds, observed 98.37% over 13.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/45
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Agent Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/45)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Agent Johnny

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/45?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/45?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/45) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/45?window=all)

Price · $6.85 · 6.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 101.14% · EV $6.93 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.37% · 13.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.37% ±7.38 1,671 openings

7 days · 98.61% ±2.80 11.6K openings

30 days · 98.37% ±2.56 13.9K openings

since tracking started · 98.37% ±2.56 13.9K openings

91.5% 99.5% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/45?window=24h) | 1,671 | 99.37% ±7.38 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/45?window=7d) | 11.6K | 98.61% ±2.80 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/45) | 13.9K | 98.37% ±2.56 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/45?window=all) | 13.9K | 98.37% ±2.56 | −1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $163 163 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 12 | 13.9 | 0.86× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $123 123 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 20 | 20.9 | 0.96× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $100 100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 22 | 27.9 | 0.79× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $95.81 95.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 32 | 34.8 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $47.89 47.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 57 | 55.8 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $44.40 44.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 63 | 69.7 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $31.68 31.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 76 | 83.6 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $28.02 28.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 91 | 97.6 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $16.88 16.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 91 | 111.5 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $14.10 14.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 125 | 125.5 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $13.02 13.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 126 | 139.4 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $12.41 12.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 172 | 167.3 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $9.90 9.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 282 | 278.8 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $8.63 8.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 67 | 376.4 | 0.18× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $8.57 8.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 540 | 557.6 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.98 7.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.8% | 720 | 696.9 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.57 7.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.5% | 675 | 696.9 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $6.14 6.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 763 | 766.6 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $5.92 5.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 767 | 766.6 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $5.88 5.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 827 | 836.3 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $5.71 5.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.4% | 957 | 906.0 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $5.04 5.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 911 | 975.7 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 995 | 1045.4 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $4.22 4.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 995 | 975.7 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $3.83 3.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 915 | 906.0 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $3.56 3.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 149 | 836.3 | 0.18× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $3.31 3.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 871 | 836.3 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $2.12 2.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 849 | 836.3 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $1.42 1.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 729 | 696.9 | 1.05× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=45)

[Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-field-tested) [Pooru-Chan](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Pooru-Chan) $6.85 6.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $8.63 8.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.26x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-battle-scarred) [Kozel](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kozel) $6.85 6.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.42 1.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.21x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) [-\[FF\]- ♂Axl♂](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/-%5BFF%5D-%20%E2%99%82Axl%E2%99%82) $6.85 6.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.12 2.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.31x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) [Halo5078](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Halo5078) $6.85 6.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.71 5.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.83x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) [Сын маминой подру](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%A1%D1%8B%D0%BD%20%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%80%D1%83) $6.85 6.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.69x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-field-tested) [asdadadasdasdsafafsaf](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/asdadadasdasdsafafsaf) $6.85 6.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.88 5.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.86x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) [Da55at](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Da55at) $6.85 6.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.69x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) [Ты горишь как огонь](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%A2%D1%8B%20%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%88%D1%8C%20%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BA%20%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%8C) $6.85 6.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.71 5.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.83x 2026-11-11 15:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-minimal-wear) [! SENTIMENTAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/!%20SENTIMENTAL) $6.85 6.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.56 3.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.52x 2026-11-11 15:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) [Neutronium](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Neutronium) $6.85 6.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.83 3.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $6.85 | 101.14% | 29 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $6.85 | 100.84% | 29 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $6.85 | 100.54% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.1% covert 0.4% Immortal 0.2% uncommon 5.4% classified 13.1% Covert 0.6% #d32ee6 7.3% industrial 1.0% Mythical 9.2% Uncommon 2.7% restricted 16.5% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% Legendary 11.5% consumer 6.5% #8847ff 7.5% pink 7.0% Rare 6.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 101.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $101.14 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt