---
title: "The Child case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Child ($10.99) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 99.92% from 34 items with odds, observed 98.22% over 11K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/46
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [The Child](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/46)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · The Child

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/46?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/46?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/46) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/46?window=all)

Price · $10.99 · 10.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 99.92% · EV $10.98 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.22% · 11K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.48% ±6.71 1,271 openings

7 days · 97.80% ±2.49 9,216 openings

30 days · 98.22% ±2.28 11K openings

since tracking started · 98.22% ±2.28 11K openings

91.0% 98.5% 106.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/46?window=24h) | 1,271 | 98.48% ±6.71 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/46?window=7d) | 9,216 | 97.80% ±2.49 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/46) | 11K | 98.22% ±2.28 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/46?window=all) | 11K | 98.22% ±2.28 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $157 157 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 17 | 11.0 | 1.54× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $119 119 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 20 | 16.6 | 1.21× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $99.59 99.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 23 | 27.6 | 0.83× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $89.00 89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 33 | 38.7 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $77.68 77.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 36 | 38.7 | 0.93× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $71.94 71.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 41 | 44.2 | 0.93× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $61.03 61.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 35 | 49.7 | 0.70× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 182 | $51.63 51.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 56 | 60.8 | 0.92× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $47.14 47.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 66 | 66.3 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $44.10 44.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 52 | 66.3 | 0.78× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $38.52 38.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 70 | 77.3 | 0.91× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $37.22 37.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 75 | 77.3 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $28.82 28.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 79 | 88.4 | 0.89× |
| [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-toxic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $26.83 26.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 88 | 99.4 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $19.21 19.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 96 | 110.5 | 0.87× |
| [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $16.36 16.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 233 | 221.0 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $15.07 15.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 218 | 221.0 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $13.46 13.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 356 | 331.5 | 1.07× |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $12.17 12.17 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 439 | 442.0 | 0.99× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $11.36 11.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 583 | 552.4 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $10.91 10.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 573 | 552.4 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $10.56 10.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 542 | 552.4 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-cat-fight-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $9.66 9.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 642 | 607.7 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $8.33 8.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 644 | 662.9 | 0.97× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $8.08 8.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 704 | 662.9 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $7.55 7.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 791 | 773.4 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $6.31 6.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 627 | 662.9 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $5.92 5.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 637 | 662.9 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $5.46 5.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 622 | 662.9 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $5.14 5.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 682 | 662.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $4.61 4.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 594 | 618.7 | 0.96× |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.97 3.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 555 | 552.4 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.34 3.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 468 | 442.0 | 1.06× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 352 | 331.5 | 1.06× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=46)

[StatTrak™ AWP | Capillary (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-factory-new) [Da55at](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Da55at) $10.99 10.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.56 10.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.96x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) [здоровья погибшим](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%B7%D0%B4%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B1%D1%88%D0%B8%D0%BC) $10.99 10.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.61 4.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC

[XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) [Amp banditcamp.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Amp%20banditcamp.com) $10.99 10.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.36 11.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.03x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) [Amp banditcamp.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Amp%20banditcamp.com) $10.99 10.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.91 10.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.99x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) [4poks #MAGICRUST](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/4poks%20%23MAGICRUST) $10.99 10.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.46 5.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) [☠MΔŦΔĐØℜ☠](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%A0M%CE%94%C5%A6%CE%94%C4%90%C3%98%E2%84%9C%E2%98%A0) $10.99 10.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $8.08 8.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.74x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) [DRAGONSPY09](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DRAGONSPY09) $10.99 10.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.36 11.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.03x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) [DRAGONSPY09](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DRAGONSPY09) $10.99 10.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.61 4.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) [DRAGONSPY09](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DRAGONSPY09) $10.99 10.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.46 5.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) [DRAGONSPY09](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DRAGONSPY09) $10.99 10.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.61 4.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $10.99 | 99.92% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Immortal 0.7% covert knife 1.0% covert 0.7% red 0.3% classified 22.1% Mythical 13.6% Covert 0.7% consumer 0.8% Mil Spec Grade 0.9% Mil Spec 2.0% pink 2.0% violet 4.0% restricted 16.5% mil spec 16.0% other 6.0% blue 5.6% #8847ff 7.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 99.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $99.92 on average: an expected loss of $0.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt