---
title: "Nosferatu case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Nosferatu ($12.90) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.14% from 32 items with odds, observed 84.19% over 10.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/47
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Nosferatu](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/47)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Nosferatu

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/47?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/47?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/47) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/47?window=all)

Price · $12.90 · 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 85.14% · EV $10.98 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.19% · 10.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.14% ±9.46 1,143 openings

7 days · 84.29% ±3.47 8,489 openings

30 days · 84.19% ±3.18 10.1K openings

since tracking started · 84.19% ±3.18 10.1K openings

75.0% 85.0% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/47?window=24h) | 1,143 | 85.14% ±9.46 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/47?window=7d) | 8,489 | 84.29% ±3.47 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/47) | 10.1K | 84.19% ±3.18 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/47?window=all) | 10.1K | 84.19% ±3.18 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $246 246 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 17 | 10.1 | 1.68× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $235 235 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 9 | 10.1 | 0.89× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $210 210 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 15 | 20.2 | 0.74× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $183 183 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 28 | 30.3 | 0.92× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $147 147 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 22 | 35.4 | 0.62× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $90.13 90.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 43 | 45.5 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $65.20 65.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 68 | 70.7 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $45.44 45.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 88 | 80.8 | 1.09× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $40.93 40.93 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 116 | 101.0 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $31.23 31.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 112 | 101.0 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $25.20 25.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 76 | 101.0 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $22.85 22.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 146 | 151.6 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $21.68 21.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 163 | 151.6 | 1.08× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $18.44 18.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 226 | 202.1 | 1.12× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $16.04 16.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 203 | 202.1 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $13.43 13.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 335 | 303.1 | 1.11× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $11.19 11.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 515 | 505.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $10.28 10.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 482 | 505.2 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $9.50 9.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 616 | 606.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-exoskeleton-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $8.76 8.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 594 | 606.2 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $7.06 7.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 618 | 606.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $6.31 6.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 581 | 606.2 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $6.14 6.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 596 | 606.2 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| 27 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-27-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $6.02 6.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 579 | 606.2 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $5.64 5.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 604 | 606.2 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.38 4.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 501 | 505.2 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $3.80 3.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 540 | 505.2 | 1.07× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.71 3.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 494 | 505.2 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.36 3.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 521 | 505.2 | 1.03× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.72 2.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 397 | 404.2 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $2.41 2.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 412 | 404.2 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.38 1.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 387 | 404.2 | 0.96× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=47)

[P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) [40kg kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/40kg%20kid) $12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.19 11.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) [40kg kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/40kg%20kid) $12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.31 6.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) [I-stekan-I](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/I-stekan-I) $12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.36 3.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Tec-9 | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) [I-stekan-I](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/I-stekan-I) $12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $40.93 40.93 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 3.17x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) [Akio](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Akio) $12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.38 4.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) [ĂʟӍάƷ♛►ŇάṼI](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C4%82%CA%9F%D3%8D%CE%AC%C6%B7%E2%99%9B%E2%96%BA%C5%87%CE%AC%E1%B9%BCI) $12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.19 11.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) [Cosia](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cosia) $12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.38 1.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) [不拿控制 死 全 家](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E4%B8%8D%E6%8B%BF%E6%8E%A7%E5%88%B6%20%E6%AD%BB%20%E5%85%A8%20%E5%AE%B6) $12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $13.43 13.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) [kaijin1go](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/kaijin1go) $12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $31.23 31.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.42x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) [kaijin1go](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/kaijin1go) $12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.28 10.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.80x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $12.90 | 85.14% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 0.1% covert 0.4% covert knife 0.2% #ffd700 0.3% gold 0.5% red 0.7% Legendary 0.8% classified 34.5% milspec 7.0% restricted 21.5% Rare 2.0% pink 5.0% Classified 5.0% Mythical 5.0% mil spec 5.0% violet 8.0% #8847ff 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.14 on average: an expected loss of $14.86 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt