---
title: "Marble Pumpkin case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Marble Pumpkin ($17.50) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 102.71% from 36 items with odds, observed 100.13% over 9,494 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/48
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Marble Pumpkin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/48)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Marble Pumpkin

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/48?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/48?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/48) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/48?window=all)

Price · $17.50 · 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 102.71% · EV $17.97 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.13% · 9,494 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 100.85% ±10.96 1,075 openings

7 days · 98.98% ±4.04 7,886 openings

30 days · 100.13% ±3.68 9,494 openings

since tracking started · 100.13% ±3.68 9,494 openings

89.0% 100.8% 112.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/48?window=24h) | 1,075 | 100.85% ±11.0 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/48?window=7d) | 7,886 | 98.98% ±4.04 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/48) | 9,494 | 100.13% ±3.68 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/48?window=all) | 9,494 | 100.13% ±3.68 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,513 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,126 1,126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $304 304 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 9 | 9.5 | 0.95× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $221 221 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 7 | 9.5 | 0.74× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $184 184 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 19 | 19.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $178 178 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 26 | 23.8 | 1.09× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $148 148 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 4 | 23.8 | 0.17× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $119 119 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 26 | 28.5 | 0.91× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $93.79 93.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 32 | 28.5 | 1.12× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 222 | $72.98 72.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 40 | 42.8 | 0.93× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $65.93 65.93 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 48 | 47.6 | 1.01× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $53.72 53.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 54 | 57.1 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $40.85 40.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 54 | 66.6 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $31.75 31.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 63 | 76.1 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $28.81 28.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 100 | 95.1 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $26.41 26.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 102 | 95.1 | 1.07× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $25.93 25.93 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 131 | 133.2 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $23.24 23.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 187 | 190.3 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $22.91 22.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 191 | 190.3 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $21.38 21.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 278 | 285.4 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-electrum-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $20.99 20.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 347 | 380.5 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-bengal-tiger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $19.24 19.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.4% | 445 | 475.6 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $18.08 18.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 462 | 475.6 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $17.32 17.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 469 | 475.6 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $17.04 17.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 486 | 523.2 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $16.66 16.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.6% | 536 | 570.8 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $15.23 15.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 615 | 570.8 | 1.08× |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $14.68 14.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 578 | 570.8 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $13.21 13.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 147 | 523.2 | 0.28× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $12.18 12.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 479 | 475.6 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $11.40 11.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 481 | 475.6 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $10.01 10.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 488 | 475.6 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.11 8.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 470 | 475.6 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.20 7.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 521 | 475.6 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $6.52 6.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 471 | 475.6 | 0.99× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $4.18 4.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 386 | 380.5 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $3.24 3.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 286 | 285.4 | 1.00× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) [Neiru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Neiru) $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,126 1,126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 64.32x 2026-11-11 02:30 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) [Blury](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Blury) $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,126 1,126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 64.32x 2026-11-08 06:13 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) [Crayola - Sour Cream](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Crayola%20-%20Sour%20Cream) $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,126 1,126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 64.32x 2026-11-03 23:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=48)

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) [Ethiamach1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ethiamach1) $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.01 10.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-battle-scarred) [Danjgem](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Danjgem) $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.40 11.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) [Rotham](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Rotham) $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $13.21 13.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-battle-scarred) [Rotham](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Rotham) $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.52 6.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[USP-S | Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) [blandi#rustysaloon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/blandi%23rustysaloon) $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.20 7.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Skulls (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-skulls-field-tested) [Ðēåđ\_şĥøŧ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C3%90%C4%93%C3%A5%C4%91_%C5%9F%C4%A5%C3%B8%C5%A7%E2%84%A2) $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $18.08 18.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) [40kg kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/40kg%20kid) $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.01 10.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Bone Machine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-minimal-wear) [40kg kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/40kg%20kid) $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $14.68 14.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Bone Machine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-minimal-wear) [FiskerxD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FiskerxD) $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $14.68 14.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) [ArTz >:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ArTz%20%3E%3A%29) $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $15.23 15.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $17.50 | 102.71% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $17.50 | 102.85% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $17.50 | 103.10% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.1% covert 1.4% covert knife 1.0% #ffd700 0.3% gold 1.1% Legendary 0.8% classified 33.0% restricted 7.9% Mythical 4.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% #d32ce6 11.5% rare 6.0% mil spec 6.0% Uncommon 5.0% #4b69ff 5.0% Classified 5.0% pink 7.0% best hit $1,126 (64.32x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 102.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $102.71 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt