---
title: "Norman case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Norman ($32.75) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 104.78% from 35 items with odds, observed 102.81% over 8,072 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/49
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Norman](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/49)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Norman

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/49?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/49?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/49) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/49?window=all)

Price · $32.75 · 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 104.78% · EV $34.32 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 102.81% · 8,072 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.61% ±10.87 975 openings

7 days · 103.19% ±4.15 6,700 openings

30 days · 102.81% ±3.78 8,072 openings

since tracking started · 102.81% ±3.78 8,072 openings

83.0% 95.5% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/49?window=24h) | 975 | 94.61% ±10.9 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/49?window=7d) | 6,700 | 103.19% ±4.15 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/49) | 8,072 | 102.81% ±3.78 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/49?window=all) | 8,072 | 102.81% ±3.78 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,104 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,100 1,100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 9 | 8.1 | 1.11× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $577 577 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 11 | 12.2 | 0.90× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 400 | $462 462 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 17 | 20.3 | 0.84× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 333 | $312 312 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 20 | 24.3 | 0.82× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 250 | $283 283 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 35 | 32.4 | 1.08× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $229 229 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 33 | 40.5 | 0.81× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $180 180 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 36 | 40.5 | 0.89× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $161 161 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 44 | 40.5 | 1.09× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $146 146 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 50 | 40.5 | 1.23× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $142 142 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 52 | 48.6 | 1.07× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $108 108 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 34 | 48.6 | 0.70× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $63.32 63.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 58 | 56.7 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $56.41 56.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 60 | 72.9 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $46.85 46.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 90 | 81.0 | 1.11× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $41.57 41.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 130 | 162.1 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $39.91 39.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 159 | 162.1 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $38.39 38.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 244 | 243.1 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $33.41 33.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 73 | 81.0 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $32.78 32.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 292 | 324.2 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $32.63 32.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 361 | 405.2 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $30.64 30.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.4% | 552 | 486.2 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $30.25 30.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.3% | 453 | 486.2 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $28.24 28.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 499 | 486.2 | 1.03× |
| [Souvenir Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $25.16 25.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 500 | 486.2 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $24.47 24.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 483 | 486.2 | 0.99× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $23.26 23.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 473 | 486.2 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $22.19 22.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 396 | 405.2 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $21.19 21.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 412 | 405.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $20.40 20.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 519 | 486.2 | 1.07× |
| [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $18.85 18.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 399 | 405.2 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $17.82 17.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 345 | 324.2 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $15.66 15.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 341 | 324.2 | 1.05× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $12.88 12.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 320 | 324.2 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $11.09 11.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 355 | 324.2 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $7.26 7.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 249 | 243.1 | 1.02× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [Bortoli](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bortoli) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,100 1,100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.59x 2026-11-09 23:36 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [?cristy69@FCD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%3Fcristy69%40FCD) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,100 1,100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.59x 2026-11-09 21:16 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [Akali](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Akali) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,100 1,100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.59x 2026-11-09 17:03 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [Algebra](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Algebra) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,100 1,100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.59x 2026-11-09 15:38 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [ItsHayden2016](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ItsHayden2016) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,100 1,100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.59x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [BonJour](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BonJour) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,100 1,100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.59x 2026-11-07 13:55 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [KingRon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/KingRon) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,100 1,100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.59x 2026-11-05 11:12 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [Niko](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Niko) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,100 1,100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.59x 2026-11-05 05:00 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [Rag](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Rag) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,100 1,100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.59x 2026-11-04 10:29 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [Camilowo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Camilowo) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $577 577 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 17.63x 2026-11-11 01:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=49)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Sammy39](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sammy39) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $229 229 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.99x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-factory-new) [FireFighter\_Jeffery](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FireFighter_Jeffery) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $22.19 22.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) [Diabolus Vulpes](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Diabolus%20Vulpes) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.88 12.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) [Sammy39](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sammy39) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.26 7.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) [FireFighter\_Jeffery](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FireFighter_Jeffery) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $30.64 30.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[SSG 08 | Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) [Diabolus Vulpes](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Diabolus%20Vulpes) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.09 11.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) [Cheri Lady](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cheri%20Lady) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $32.78 32.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.00x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Souvenir Galil AR | CAUTION! (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-caution-field-tested) [Cheri Lady](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cheri%20Lady) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $25.16 25.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) [Chocolate 🦄🦄](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chocolate%20%F0%9F%A6%84%F0%9F%A6%84) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $39.91 39.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.22x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [Chocolate 🦄🦄](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chocolate%20%F0%9F%A6%84%F0%9F%A6%84) $32.75 32.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $24.47 24.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $32.75 | 104.78% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.3% gold 2.2% other 0.3% covert knife 1.1% rare 2.2% Classified 3.0% mil spec 10.0% classified 26.0% restricted 25.0% Restricted 6.0% Rare 6.0% pink 5.0% uncommon 3.0% best hit $1,100 (33.59x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 104.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $104.78 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt