---
title: "Carlitto case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Carlitto ($48.80) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 102.92% from 38 items with odds, observed 103.37% over 7,000 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/50
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Carlitto](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/50)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Carlitto

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/50?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/50?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/50) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/50?window=all)

Price · $48.80 · 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 102.92% · EV $50.23 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 103.37% · 7,000 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.73% ±12.24 761 openings

7 days · 103.70% ±4.43 5,821 openings

30 days · 103.37% ±4.04 7,000 openings

since tracking started · 103.37% ±4.04 7,000 openings

83.0% 96.0% 109.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/50?window=24h) | 761 | 95.73% ±12.2 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/50?window=7d) | 5,821 | 103.70% ±4.43 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/50) | 7,000 | 103.37% ±4.04 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/50?window=all) | 7,000 | 103.37% ±4.04 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,014 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,249 3,249 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $2,027 2,027 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.78× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $832 832 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 13 | 10.5 | 1.24× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $726 726 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 19 | 21.0 | 0.90× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $597 597 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 29 | 24.5 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $269 269 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 26 | 28.1 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $235 235 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 34 | 35.1 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $213 213 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 38 | 35.1 | 1.08× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $182 182 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 40 | 35.1 | 1.14× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $152 152 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 29 | 38.6 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $142 142 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 42 | 42.1 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 33 | 42.1 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $108 108 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 53 | 49.1 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $92.40 92.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 54 | 56.1 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $86.44 86.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 56 | 70.1 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-serum-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $83.72 83.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 67 | 70.1 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $82.44 82.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 56 | 70.1 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $79.27 79.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 65 | 70.1 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $65.46 65.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 76 | 70.1 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $61.79 61.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 105 | 105.2 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $58.75 58.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 112 | 105.2 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $57.18 57.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 142 | 140.3 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $56.27 56.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 214 | 210.4 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $49.60 49.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 341 | 350.7 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $47.48 47.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 346 | 350.7 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $44.72 44.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 361 | 350.7 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $41.35 41.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 390 | 420.8 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $40.03 40.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.6% | 507 | 491.0 | 1.03× |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $39.08 39.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.4% | 461 | 491.0 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $36.20 36.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 529 | 491.0 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $32.36 32.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 456 | 491.0 | 0.93× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $28.28 28.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 526 | 491.0 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $25.38 25.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 491 | 491.0 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $22.62 22.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 346 | 350.7 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $20.11 20.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 293 | 280.6 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $14.43 14.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 278 | 280.6 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $12.94 12.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 222 | 210.4 | 1.06× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $9.66 9.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 159 | 140.3 | 1.13× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) [Bradac](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bradac) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,027 2,027 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 41.53x 2026-11-10 01:46 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) [H4zl33N](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/H4zl33N) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,027 2,027 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 41.53x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) [Halfer](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Halfer) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,027 2,027 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 41.53x 2026-11-08 19:26 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) [FaTiGaa.Dattebayo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FaTiGaa.Dattebayo) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,027 2,027 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 41.53x 2026-11-07 21:26 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) [BastiE](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BastiE) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,027 2,027 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 41.53x 2026-11-06 01:40 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [Światowy Menel](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C5%9Awiatowy%20Menel) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $832 832 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 17.06x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [cock-sucker](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/cock-sucker) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $832 832 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 17.06x 2026-11-10 23:04 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [ШЛЯПЕНГАУЗЕР](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%A8%D0%9B%D0%AF%D0%9F%D0%95%D0%9D%D0%93%D0%90%D0%A3%D0%97%D0%95%D0%A0) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $832 832 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 17.06x 2026-11-10 11:19 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [Gh\[0\]sT](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gh%5B0%5DsT) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $832 832 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 17.06x 2026-11-10 09:05 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [Hydran](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Hydran) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $832 832 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 17.06x 2026-11-09 06:50 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=50)

[SSG 08 | Death's Head (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-well-worn) [ACoffeTable](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ACoffeTable) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.11 20.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) [『 AK47 』™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E3%80%8E%20AK47%20%E3%80%8F%E2%84%A2) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $58.75 58.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.20x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) [AP](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AP) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $49.60 49.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[USP-S | Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) [BMaximusBoss](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BMaximusBoss) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $41.35 41.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) [BMaximusBoss](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BMaximusBoss) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $56.27 56.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.15x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) [God Guenzelsen](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/God%20Guenzelsen) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $61.79 61.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.27x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-factory-new) [God Guenzelsen](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/God%20Guenzelsen) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $92.40 92.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.89x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-factory-new) [bExa](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/bExa) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $32.36 32.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) [bExa](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/bExa) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $40.03 40.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.82x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) [bExa](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/bExa) $48.80 48.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $14.43 14.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $48.80 | 102.92% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.7% Immortal 0.1% #EB4B4B 0.3% epic 0.5% Ancient 1.5% classified 25.2% red 0.6% restricted 41.5% industrial 10.5% rare 2.0% mil spec 5.0% Legendary 4.0% #4b69ff 3.0% Restricted 2.0% best hit $2,027 (41.53x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 102.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $102.92 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt