---
title: "Pizza Superhero case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Pizza Superhero ($105.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.62% from 43 items with odds, observed 89.23% over 5,633 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/51
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Pizza Superhero](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/51)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Pizza Superhero

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/51?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/51?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/51) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/51?window=all)

Price · $105.00 · 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 88.62% · EV $93.05 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.23% · 5,633 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.18% ±6.37 619 openings

7 days · 89.27% ±2.32 4,654 openings

30 days · 89.23% ±2.12 5,633 openings

since tracking started · 89.23% ±2.12 5,633 openings

83.0% 90.0% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/51?window=24h) | 619 | 90.18% ±6.37 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/51?window=7d) | 4,654 | 89.27% ±2.32 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/51) | 5,633 | 89.23% ±2.12 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/51?window=all) | 5,633 | 89.23% ±2.12 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,646 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,041 1,041 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.24× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $721 721 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $689 689 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 14 | 11.3 | 1.24× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $608 608 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 7 | 16.9 | 0.41× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 333 | $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 22 | 16.9 | 1.30× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $521 521 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 16 | 16.9 | 0.94× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $410 410 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 21 | 22.6 | 0.93× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $393 393 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 26 | 22.6 | 1.15× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $276 276 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 29 | 22.6 | 1.28× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $257 257 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 32 | 28.2 | 1.13× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $233 233 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 34 | 33.9 | 1.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $226 226 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 28 | 33.9 | 0.83× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $217 217 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 40 | 39.5 | 1.01× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife) | 1 in 143 | $213 213 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 47 | 39.5 | 1.19× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $206 206 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 57 | 56.5 | 1.01× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $191 191 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 41 | 56.5 | 0.73× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-night-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $188 188 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 57 | 56.5 | 1.01× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $172 172 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 67 | 56.5 | 1.19× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $153 153 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 50 | 56.5 | 0.89× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $142 142 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 70 | 56.5 | 1.24× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $131 131 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 58 | 56.5 | 1.03× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $126 126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 56 | 56.5 | 0.99× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 140 | 141.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $120 120 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 210 | 225.8 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $114 114 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.5% | 260 | 254.1 | 1.02× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $106 106 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.7% | 291 | 282.3 | 1.03× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $91.99 91.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 275 | 282.3 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $89.88 89.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 279 | 282.3 | 0.99× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $87.28 87.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 280 | 282.3 | 0.99× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $81.36 81.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 279 | 282.3 | 0.99× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $77.11 77.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 295 | 282.3 | 1.04× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $73.69 73.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 302 | 282.3 | 1.07× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $71.82 71.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 232 | 225.8 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $64.22 64.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 217 | 225.8 | 0.96× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $61.34 61.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 236 | 225.8 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $59.22 59.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 249 | 225.8 | 1.10× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $41.38 41.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 212 | 225.8 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $33.96 33.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 215 | 225.8 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $30.76 30.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 217 | 225.8 | 0.96× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $22.98 22.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 228 | 225.8 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $20.90 20.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 136 | 135.5 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $20.27 20.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 209 | 225.8 | 0.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $15.54 15.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 97 | 112.9 | 0.86× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [ceanma](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ceanma) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,041 1,041 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 9.91x 2026-11-11 06:57 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [ики исодээ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8%20%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%8D%D1%8D) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,041 1,041 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 9.91x 2026-11-09 05:58 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [decept](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/decept) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,041 1,041 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 9.91x 2026-11-08 09:14 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [Janeczek](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Janeczek) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,041 1,041 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 9.91x 2026-11-07 19:44 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [Flipit.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Flipit.gg) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,041 1,041 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 9.91x 2026-11-06 02:41 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [BOY NEXT DOOR](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BOY%20NEXT%20DOOR) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,041 1,041 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 9.91x 2026-11-05 07:07 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [Givedrop.ru MILF HUNTER](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Givedrop.ru%20MILF%20HUNTER) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,041 1,041 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 9.91x 2026-11-04 18:11 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) [Iuvenali](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Iuvenali) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $737 737 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.02x 2026-11-04 00:00 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) [Я хохол](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%AF%20%D1%85%D0%BE%D1%85%D0%BE%D0%BB) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $737 737 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.02x 2026-11-03 20:41 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) [Bixent3](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bixent3) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $737 737 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.02x 2026-11-03 10:56 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=51)

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife) [Merima](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Merima) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $213 213 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.02x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-battle-scarred) [Merima](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Merima) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $153 153 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.46x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) [Merima](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Merima) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.27 20.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [Merima](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Merima) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $131 131 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.25x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[MAC-10 | Propaganda (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-well-worn) [foifan](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/foifan) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $33.96 33.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-battle-scarred) [huseiJN](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/huseiJN) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $153 153 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.46x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) [Gigas Waifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gigas%20Waifu) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $59.22 59.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-battle-scarred) [blandi#rustysaloon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/blandi%23rustysaloon) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $81.36 81.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) [ederguedesdosantos23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ederguedesdosantos23) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $87.28 87.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-crakow-battle-scarred) [BlueFour](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BlueFour) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $41.38 41.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $105 | 88.62% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $105 | 88.79% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 38.9% covert knife 16.2% sunny 0.5% Immortal 1.0% classified 11.4% gold 10.0% Classified 8.0% Legendary 4.0% Restricted 4.0% #8847ff 4.0% #d32ee6 2.0% best hit $1,041 (9.91x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.62 on average: an expected loss of $11.38 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt