---
title: "Frankie case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Frankie ($143.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.11% from 46 items with odds, observed 87.49% over 5,181 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/52
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Frankie](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/52)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Frankie

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/52?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/52?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/52) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/52?window=all)

Price · $143.00 · 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 89.11% · EV $127.42 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.49% · 5,181 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.97% ±6.81 583 openings

7 days · 87.58% ±2.58 4,185 openings

30 days · 87.49% ±2.32 5,181 openings

since tracking started · 87.49% ±2.32 5,181 openings

84.5% 92.0% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/52?window=24h) | 583 | 91.97% ±6.81 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/52?window=7d) | 4,185 | 87.58% ±2.58 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/52) | 5,181 | 87.49% ±2.32 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/52?window=all) | 5,181 | 87.49% ±2.32 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,190 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,448 1,448 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 9 | 5.2 | 1.73× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,248 1,248 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,171 1,171 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,161 1,161 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,111 1,111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 500 | $853 853 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 1 | 10.4 | 0.10× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet) | 1 in 500 | $774 774 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 0 | 10.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $674 674 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 0 | 15.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $643 643 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 14 | 15.6 | 0.90× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $572 572 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 1 | 20.8 | 0.05× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 250 | $481 481 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 1 | 20.8 | 0.05× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $426 426 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 2 | 20.8 | 0.10× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $390 390 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 2 | 25.9 | 0.08× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $353 353 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 4 | 25.9 | 0.15× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $344 344 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 24 | 31.1 | 0.77× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $286 286 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 31 | 36.3 | 0.85× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 143 | $281 281 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 28 | 36.3 | 0.77× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $232 232 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 37 | 36.3 | 1.02× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $228 228 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 54 | 41.5 | 1.30× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $217 217 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 35 | 46.7 | 0.75× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $213 213 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 53 | 51.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $196 196 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 57 | 51.9 | 1.10× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $185 185 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 41 | 51.9 | 0.79× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $185 185 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 57 | 51.9 | 1.10× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $182 182 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 48 | 51.9 | 0.92× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $171 171 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 55 | 51.9 | 1.06× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 51 | 51.9 | 0.98× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $151 151 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 118 | 103.8 | 1.14× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $142 142 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 147 | 129.7 | 1.13× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $131 131 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 151 | 155.7 | 0.97× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $128 128 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 162 | 155.7 | 1.04× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $120 120 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 208 | 207.6 | 1.00× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 271 | 259.5 | 1.04× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $116 116 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.5% | 272 | 311.4 | 0.87× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife) | 1 in 17 | $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 316 | 311.4 | 1.01× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $103 103 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.7% | 367 | 363.3 | 1.01× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $98.11 98.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.4% | 365 | 363.3 | 1.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $81.06 81.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 385 | 384.1 | 1.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $78.97 78.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 258 | 259.5 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $77.74 77.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 257 | 259.5 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $74.60 74.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 261 | 259.5 | 1.01× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $68.06 68.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 229 | 207.6 | 1.10× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $67.04 67.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 210 | 207.6 | 1.01× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $55.92 55.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 147 | 155.7 | 0.94× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $48.67 48.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 146 | 155.7 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $41.46 41.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 170 | 155.7 | 1.09× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [DoggerTheCreator](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DoggerTheCreator) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,544 1,544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.79x 2026-11-08 15:56 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [funko pop](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/funko%20pop) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,544 1,544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.79x 2026-11-07 02:07 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [crazywisler](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/crazywisler) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,544 1,544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.79x 2026-11-06 08:33 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [BigGulp](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BigGulp) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,544 1,544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.79x 2026-11-06 05:12 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [joker2109](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/joker2109) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,544 1,544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.79x 2026-11-04 20:43 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [Fluffel3](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fluffel3) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,544 1,544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.79x 2026-11-04 18:50 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [Dachs](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Dachs) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,448 1,448 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.12x 2026-11-11 04:25 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [DipZYYY](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DipZYYY) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,448 1,448 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.12x 2026-11-10 18:33 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [темчик Cum Shot](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BC%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%BA%20Cum%20Shot) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,448 1,448 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.12x 2026-11-10 17:40 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [! Reverse | S>Games/Levels ¡](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/!%20Reverse%20%7C%20S%3EGames%2FLevels%20%C2%A1) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,348 1,348 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 9.43x 2026-11-08 19:39 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=52)

[★ Nomad Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) [are you winning son?](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/are%20you%20winning%20son%3F) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $120 120 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.84x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) [are you winning son?](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/are%20you%20winning%20son%3F) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $116 116 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.81x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-factory-new) [щенок](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D1%89%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%BA) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $78.97 78.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.55x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) [Piccolo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Piccolo) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $196 196 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.37x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-battle-scarred) [Piccolo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Piccolo) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $353 353 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.47x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) [Piccolo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Piccolo) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $48.67 48.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.34x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [Loyal #gains.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Loyal%20%23gains.gg) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $67.04 67.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.47x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [Retro226](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Retro226) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $142 142 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.99x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) [AJuicyOrange](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AJuicyOrange) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $182 182 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.27x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) [Maladis](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Maladis) $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $41.46 41.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.29x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $143 | 89.11% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $143 | 88.83% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $143 | 89.09% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 41.6% covert knife 25.3% gold 10.3% #EB4B4B 0.4% #ffd700 8.6% Covert 4.8% red 5.0% rare 4.0% best hit $1,544 (10.79x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.11 on average: an expected loss of $10.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt