---
title: "Pablitto case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Pablitto ($399.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.10% from 58 items with odds, observed 87.70% over 3,139 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/54
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Pablitto](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/54)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Pablitto

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/54?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/54?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/54) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/54?window=all)

Price · $399.00 · 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 87.10% · EV $347.54 from 58 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.70% · 3,139 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.36% ±7.85 395 openings

7 days · 87.00% ±3.04 2,629 openings

30 days · 87.70% ±2.79 3,139 openings

since tracking started · 87.70% ±2.79 3,139 openings

77.0% 85.5% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/54?window=24h) | 395 | 85.36% ±7.85 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/54?window=7d) | 2,629 | 87.00% ±3.04 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/54) | 3,139 | 87.70% ±2.79 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/54?window=all) | 3,139 | 87.70% ±2.79 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 58 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,170 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,409 6,409 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.26× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,063 6,063 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $5,266 5,266 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.52× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,893 2,893 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.89× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,393 2,393 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,084 2,084 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.26× |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,848 1,848 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.58× |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,722 1,722 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.89× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,630 1,630 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,390 1,390 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,309 1,309 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.10× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 500 | $1,302 1,302 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 10 | 6.3 | 1.58× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,287 1,287 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.10× |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $1,122 1,122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 3 | 7.9 | 0.38× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 250 | $1,079 1,079 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 16 | 12.7 | 1.26× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,079 1,079 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 13 | 12.7 | 1.03× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,056 1,056 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 15 | 15.8 | 0.95× |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $996 996 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 10 | 15.8 | 0.63× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $938 938 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 9 | 15.8 | 0.57× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $899 899 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 17 | 15.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $871 871 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 14 | 15.8 | 0.88× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $812 812 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 10 | 15.8 | 0.63× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $743 743 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 22 | 17.4 | 1.26× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $704 704 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 21 | 19.0 | 1.10× |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $701 701 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 15 | 19.0 | 0.79× |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $640 640 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 21 | 22.2 | 0.95× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $629 629 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 24 | 22.2 | 1.08× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $613 613 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 23 | 22.2 | 1.04× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $566 566 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 35 | 31.7 | 1.10× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $564 564 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 23 | 31.7 | 0.73× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $540 540 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 32 | 31.7 | 1.01× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $504 504 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 24 | 31.7 | 0.76× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $489 489 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 19 | 31.7 | 0.60× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $479 479 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 30 | 31.7 | 0.95× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $478 478 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 30 | 31.7 | 0.95× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $460 460 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 27 | 31.7 | 0.85× |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $438 438 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 60 | 63.4 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $407 407 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 78 | 63.4 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-full-throttle-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $404 404 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 64 | 63.4 | 1.01× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 109 | 95.1 | 1.15× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $365 365 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 88 | 95.1 | 0.93× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $325 325 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 129 | 126.8 | 1.02× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $316 316 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 115 | 126.8 | 0.91× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 25 | $311 311 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 147 | 126.8 | 1.16× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $303 303 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 97 | 126.8 | 0.76× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $302 302 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 138 | 126.8 | 1.09× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $286 286 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 113 | 126.8 | 0.89× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $273 273 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 122 | 126.8 | 0.96× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $261 261 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 142 | 158.5 | 0.90× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $256 256 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 152 | 158.5 | 0.96× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $247 247 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 197 | 183.9 | 1.07× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $204 204 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 188 | 158.5 | 1.19× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $182 182 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 113 | 126.8 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $175 175 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 121 | 126.8 | 0.95× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $139 139 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 129 | 126.8 | 1.02× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $136 136 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 129 | 126.8 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $120 120 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 96 | 95.1 | 1.01× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $101 101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 90 | 95.1 | 0.95× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [ALLSTRAK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ALLSTRAK) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6,409 6,409 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.06x 2026-11-09 14:11 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [=FLIP= EasyDrop](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%3DFLIP%3D%20EasyDrop) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6,409 6,409 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.06x 2026-11-03 18:08 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [gunkbob](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/gunkbob) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5,266 5,266 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 13.20x 2026-11-10 20:46 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [Eladar](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Eladar) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5,266 5,266 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 13.20x 2026-11-06 14:25 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [Avet](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Avet) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5,266 5,266 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 13.20x 2026-11-04 18:53 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [Eve^ | 王女](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Eve%5E%20%7C%20%E7%8E%8B%E5%A5%B3) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5,266 5,266 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 13.20x 2026-11-03 18:48 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Fenriramar](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fenriramar) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,893 2,893 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.25x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Banana hellcase.org](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Banana%20hellcase.org) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,893 2,893 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.25x 2026-11-10 05:16 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [obssdshmpnnfucku](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/obssdshmpnnfucku) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,893 2,893 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.25x 2026-11-09 17:53 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-autotronic-factory-new) [Не TORONTOTOKYO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%9D%D0%B5%20TORONTOTOKYO) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,084 2,084 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.22x 2026-11-09 19:51 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=54)

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) [Cleo Castaway Cobb](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cleo%20Castaway%20Cobb) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $175 175 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [☣WOLFS☣ HETTIX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%A3WOLFS%E2%98%A3%20HETTIX) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $743 743 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.86x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [Harumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Harumi) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $261 261 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-autotronic-factory-new) [Harumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Harumi) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $256 256 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [Harumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Harumi) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $101 101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Harumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Harumi) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $303 303 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) [Keif](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Keif) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $175 175 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-autotronic-factory-new) [⎛⎝Galorch⎠⎞](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%8E%9B%E2%8E%9DGalorch%E2%8E%A0%E2%8E%9E) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $256 256 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) [☯•S么MUR么I•☯](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%AF%E2%80%A2S%E4%B9%88MUR%E4%B9%88I%E2%80%A2%E2%98%AF) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $175 175 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-well-worn) [kliolin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/kliolin) $399 399 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $273 273 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.68x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $399 | 87.10% | 58 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $399 | 87.42% | 58 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $399 | 87.47% | 58 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 64.9% contraband 0.1% Classified 0.1% legendary 0.1% knifes 0.1% #ffd700 0.8% #EB4B4B 0.1% gold 0.9% Covert 0.5% rare 4.6% covert knife 18.0% #eb4b4b 2.0% epic 4.0% classified 4.0% best hit $6,409 (16.06x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.10 on average: an expected loss of $12.90 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt