---
title: "Ak Margherita case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Ak Margherita ($1.60) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 104.13% from 34 items with odds, observed 99.51% over 35.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/55
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Ak Margherita](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/55)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Ak Margherita

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hot Pizzas), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/55?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/55?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/55) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/55?window=all)

Price · $1.60 · 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 104.13% · EV $1.67 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.51% · 35.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 31.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.19% ±17.35 4,074 openings

7 days · 101.37% ±6.37 29.7K openings

30 days · 99.51% ±5.85 35.1K openings

since tracking started · 99.51% ±5.85 35.1K openings

81.0% 99.0% 117.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/55?window=24h) | 4,074 | 99.19% ±17.4 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/55?window=7d) | 29.7K | 101.37% ±6.37 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/55) | 35.1K | 99.51% ±5.85 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/55?window=all) | 35.1K | 99.51% ±5.85 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $376 376 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.28× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 8.6% | 31 | 35.2 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $125 125 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 11.3% | 51 | 52.8 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $114 114 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 10.2% | 43 | 52.8 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $49.80 49.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.0% | 56 | 70.4 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $11.32 11.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 105 | 105.6 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $10.44 10.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 118 | 140.8 | 0.84× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $4.48 4.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 106 | 140.8 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $3.92 3.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 271 | 313.2 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $3.53 3.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 352 | 351.9 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2.18 2.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 405 | 351.9 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 665 | 703.8 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.76 1.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 727 | 703.8 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Kami (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-kami-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $1.70 1.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 711 | 703.8 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.54 1.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 694 | 703.8 | 0.99× |
| [Negev \| Dazzle (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dazzle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.50 1.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 675 | 703.8 | 0.96× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1.45 1.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 684 | 703.8 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.43 1.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 613 | 703.8 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1.42 1.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 695 | 703.8 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Slashed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-slashed-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1.38 1.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 667 | 703.8 | 0.95× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $1.31 1.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 1,077 | 1055.6 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.10 1.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 1,732 | 1759.4 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.97 0.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 1,829 | 2111.3 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.92 0.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 2,500 | 2463.2 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.82 0.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 2,780 | 2815.0 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.78 0.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 2,456 | 2463.2 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.77 0.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 2,479 | 2463.2 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.70 0.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 2,474 | 2463.2 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.54 0.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 681 | 2463.2 | 0.28× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.48 0.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 1,823 | 2111.3 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.42 0.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 1,777 | 1759.4 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.36 0.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 1,591 | 1759.4 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Crypsis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-crypsis-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 905 | 844.5 | 1.07× |
| [XM1014 \| Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.26 0.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 664 | 703.8 | 0.94× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) [FriggyFrog](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FriggyFrog) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $376 376 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 235.0x 2026-11-09 16:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [FNC Schliek](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FNC%20Schliek) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $345 345 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 215.3x 2026-11-09 04:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [dRELLARN](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/dRELLARN) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $345 345 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 215.3x 2026-11-08 19:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [lucas +=={:::::::::::::::::>](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/lucas%20%2B%3D%3D%7B%3A%3A%3A%3A%3A%3A%3A%3A%3A%3A%3A%3A%3A%3A%3A%3A%3A%3E) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $345 345 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 215.3x 2026-11-08 13:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [Makka](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Makka) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $345 345 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 215.3x 2026-11-04 22:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) [1tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/1tap) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 89.31x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) [Blinx The Time Sweeper](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Blinx%20The%20Time%20Sweeper) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 89.31x 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) [paleglot](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/paleglot) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 89.31x 2026-11-10 14:56 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) [Gomes285](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gomes285) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 89.31x 2026-11-10 14:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) [babylon TradeBack.io](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/babylon%20TradeBack.io) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 89.31x 2026-11-09 23:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=55)

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Kami (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-kami-battle-scarred) [Chocolate 🦄🦄](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chocolate%20%F0%9F%A6%84%F0%9F%A6%84) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.70 1.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.06x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-well-worn) [Bod](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bod) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.77 0.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) [Danjgem](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Danjgem) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.97 0.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Powercore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-battle-scarred) [Amin Yahouse](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Amin%20Yahouse) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.31 1.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.82x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[XM1014 | Black Tie (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-well-worn) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.45 1.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.82 0.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[P90 | Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-battle-scarred) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.48 4.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.80x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.48 0.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[XM1014 | Black Tie (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-well-worn) [Cheri Lady](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cheri%20Lady) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.45 1.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) [Cheri Lady](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cheri%20Lady) $1.60 1.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.82 0.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $1.60 | 104.13% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 08:11 UTC | $1.60 | 103.76% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.60 | 103.77% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% red 0.3% restricted 10.1% industrial 0.3% #d32ce6 0.4% classified 0.4% #4b69ff 8.0% Rare 2.0% #4B69FF 2.0% mil spec 11.0% violet 21.0% blue 2.0% Rifles 3.0% #8847ff 7.0% milspec 12.4% #8847FF 7.0% Restricted 7.0% Mythical 6.0% best hit $376 (235.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 104.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $104.13 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt