---
title: "Marble BBQ case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Marble BBQ ($3.50) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.74% from 34 items with odds, observed 87.09% over 23.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/56
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Marble BBQ](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/56)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Marble BBQ

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hot Pizzas), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/56?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/56?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/56) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/56?window=all)

Price · $3.50 · 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 88.74% · EV $3.11 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.09% · 23.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 7.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.70% ±10.17 2,844 openings

7 days · 87.93% ±3.90 19.4K openings

30 days · 87.09% ±3.57 23.1K openings

since tracking started · 87.09% ±3.57 23.1K openings

78.0% 88.8% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/56?window=24h) | 2,844 | 88.70% ±10.2 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/56?window=7d) | 19.4K | 87.93% ±3.90 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/56) | 23.1K | 87.09% ±3.57 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/56?window=all) | 23.1K | 87.09% ±3.57 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $786 786 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.29× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $334 334 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $145 145 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 2 | 7.0 | 0.29× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $29.80 29.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 24 | 23.2 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $29.06 29.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 50 | 57.9 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $11.98 11.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 112 | 139.1 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $9.59 9.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 131 | 162.2 | 0.81× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $9.04 9.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 167 | 162.2 | 1.03× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $6.15 6.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 174 | 208.6 | 0.83× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $5.62 5.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 460 | 463.5 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.91 4.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 479 | 463.5 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Stinger (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-stinger-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4.40 4.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 481 | 463.5 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $3.91 3.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 711 | 695.3 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-purple-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 794 | 927.0 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.77 3.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 909 | 927.0 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.19 3.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 137 | 927.0 | 0.15× |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2.96 2.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 884 | 927.0 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.86 2.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 1,140 | 1158.8 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Randy Rush (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-randy-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.63 2.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 1,222 | 1158.8 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.62 2.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 1,148 | 1158.8 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.54 2.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 1,092 | 1158.8 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-silent-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 1,407 | 1390.6 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $2.48 2.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.3% | 1,587 | 1550.5 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $2.36 2.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 1,029 | 1158.8 | 0.89× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $2.24 2.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 1,164 | 1158.8 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $2.20 2.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 934 | 927.0 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.12 2.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 939 | 927.0 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.98 1.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 898 | 927.0 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-twist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.64 1.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 930 | 927.0 | 1.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.58 1.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 688 | 695.3 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.54 1.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 102 | 695.3 | 0.15× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Torn (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-torn-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $1.45 1.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 731 | 695.3 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1.42 1.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 467 | 463.5 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-silent-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.32 1.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 479 | 463.5 | 1.03× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [Grim](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Grim) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $786 786 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 224.6x 2026-11-09 22:53 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [SoftPressure](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/SoftPressure) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $786 786 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 224.6x 2026-11-09 17:07 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [Beebus](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Beebus) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $786 786 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 224.6x 2026-11-05 18:48 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [DrDiddleDad](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DrDiddleDad) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $334 334 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 95.53x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [♥RGN♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%99%A5RGN%E2%99%A5) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $334 334 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 95.53x 2026-11-10 14:38 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [Calle](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Calle) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $334 334 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 95.53x 2026-11-09 13:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=56)

[Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) [Sharko](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sharko) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.54 2.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) [Harumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Harumi) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.24 2.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[M4A1-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) [Harumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Harumi) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.19 3.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) [Joey Salads](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Joey%20Salads) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.62 2.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Silent Shot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-silent-shot-minimal-wear) [Fax Ḇoiii](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fax%20%E1%B8%86oiii) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) [Fax Ḇoiii](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fax%20%E1%B8%86oiii) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.12 2.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Silent Shot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-silent-shot-minimal-wear) [Fax Ḇoiii](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fax%20%E1%B8%86oiii) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Silent Shot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-silent-shot-minimal-wear) [blandi#rustysaloon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/blandi%23rustysaloon) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-well-worn) [Ðēåđ\_şĥøŧ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C3%90%C4%93%C3%A5%C4%91_%C5%9F%C4%A5%C3%B8%C5%A7%E2%84%A2) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.42 1.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) [Cheri Lady](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cheri%20Lady) $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.12 2.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $3.50 | 88.74% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $3.50 | 88.99% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $3.50 | 88.79% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% covert knife 0.1% restricted 10.8% milspec 3.3% red 0.6% violet 16.7% pink 0.9% #4b69ff 12.0% #d32ce6 2.0% Mythical 11.0% Classified 3.0% Mil Spec Grade 4.0% mil spec 4.0% Consumer Grade 8.0% #8847ff 11.0% uncommon 6.7% Mil Spec 4.0% Rare 2.0% best hit $786 (224.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.74 on average: an expected loss of $11.26 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt