---
title: "Marble shrums case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Marble shrums ($8.99) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 100.04% from 32 items with odds, observed 102.10% over 15.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/57
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Marble shrums](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/57)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Marble shrums

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hot Pizzas), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/57?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/57?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/57) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/57?window=all)

Price · $8.99 · 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 100.04% · EV $8.99 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 102.10% · 15.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 14.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 121.09% ±17.28 1,824 openings

7 days · 103.77% ±6.64 13.1K openings

30 days · 102.10% ±6.06 15.7K openings

since tracking started · 102.10% ±6.06 15.7K openings

95.5% 117.2% 139.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/57?window=24h) | 1,824 | 121.09% ±17.3 | +2.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/57?window=7d) | 13.1K | 103.77% ±6.64 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/57) | 15.7K | 102.10% ±6.06 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/57?window=all) | 15.7K | 102.10% ±6.06 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,080 1,080 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.54× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $837 837 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 10 | 6.3 | 1.59× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Freehand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $552 552 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 9.2% | 18 | 23.7 | 0.76× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $470 470 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 16 | 15.8 | 1.01× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 46 | 47.3 | 0.97× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 44 | 47.3 | 0.93× |
| [Souvenir FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $51.92 51.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 76 | 78.9 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $36.31 36.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 112 | 94.6 | 1.18× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $28.78 28.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 110 | 110.4 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-high-roller-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $16.25 16.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 98 | 110.4 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $15.16 15.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 143 | 141.9 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $13.88 13.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 142 | 141.9 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $12.97 12.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 323 | 315.4 | 1.02× |
| [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $11.15 11.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 602 | 630.9 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $10.08 10.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 633 | 630.9 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $9.65 9.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 598 | 630.9 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $8.24 8.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 615 | 630.9 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $7.64 7.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 966 | 946.3 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $6.60 6.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 1,129 | 1072.5 | 1.05× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $5.98 5.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.3% | 1,228 | 1261.8 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $5.39 5.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 1,248 | 1261.8 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-mosaico-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $4.85 4.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 1,256 | 1261.8 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 1,284 | 1261.8 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.42 4.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 805 | 788.6 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $4.08 4.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 614 | 630.9 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.84 3.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 620 | 630.9 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.66 3.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 633 | 630.9 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.49 3.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 657 | 630.9 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-cat-fight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $3.37 3.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 646 | 630.9 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $2.38 2.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 454 | 473.2 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $2.03 2.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 313 | 315.4 | 0.99× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.26 1.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 329 | 315.4 | 1.04× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [Daddy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Daddy) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,080 1,080 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 120.1x 2026-11-11 08:05 UTC

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [Gavinranius](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gavinranius) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,080 1,080 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 120.1x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [hooligynn](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/hooligynn) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,080 1,080 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 120.1x 2026-11-08 10:13 UTC

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [Berk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Berk) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,080 1,080 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 120.1x 2026-11-04 16:00 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [m3rCy ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/m3rCy%20%E3%83%84) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $837 837 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 93.13x 2026-11-09 11:02 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [AppleJack](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AppleJack) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $837 837 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 93.13x 2026-11-08 10:41 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [Capt. Chloroform](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Capt.%20Chloroform) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $837 837 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 93.13x 2026-11-08 05:20 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [AllaNaroK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AllaNaroK) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $837 837 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 93.13x 2026-11-08 01:29 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [Rexstaff](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Rexstaff) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $837 837 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 93.13x 2026-11-07 03:02 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [✝ Evil ✝](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%9C%9D%20Evil%20%E2%9C%9D) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $837 837 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 93.13x 2026-11-06 05:51 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=57)

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) [DJIKッ-IX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DJIK%E3%83%83-IX) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $36.31 36.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.04x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[Galil AR | Shattered (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-field-tested) [franczesko paltegumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/franczesko%20paltegumi) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.39 5.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Glock-18 | Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) [Cocoaboaro](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cocoaboaro) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.08 4.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) [Brutal](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Brutal) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.60 6.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) [Ðēåđ\_şĥøŧ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C3%90%C4%93%C3%A5%C4%91_%C5%9F%C4%A5%C3%B8%C5%A7%E2%84%A2) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.60 6.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-battle-scarred) [Beeg Yoshi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Beeg%20Yoshi) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.49 3.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) [FUCK ISAC](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FUCK%20ISAC) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.38 2.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) [broment](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/broment) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.38 2.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Galil AR | Shattered (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-field-tested) [Egglertree](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Egglertree) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.39 5.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) [hakdog](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/hakdog) $8.99 8.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.64 7.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $8.99 | 100.04% | 32 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $8.99 | 100.94% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% epic 0.0% covert knife 0.5% Covert 0.3% Legendary 14.5% classified 8.2% mil spec 0.7% #d32ee6 0.9% restricted 8.0% #8847ff 4.0% violet 13.0% #87c7ff 6.8% Rare 8.0% Industrial Grade 8.0% rare 8.0% #4b69ff 5.0% pink 12.0% blue 2.0% best hit $1,080 (120.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 100.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $100.04 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt