---
title: "Pepperoni Lore case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Pepperoni Lore ($15.55) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.40% from 37 items with odds, observed 86.99% over 11.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/58
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Pepperoni Lore](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/58)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Pepperoni Lore

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hot Pizzas), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/58?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/58?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/58) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/58?window=all)

Price · $15.55 · 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 87.40% · EV $13.59 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.99% · 11.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.94% ±9.76 1,504 openings

7 days · 86.94% ±3.80 9,927 openings

30 days · 86.99% ±3.49 11.8K openings

since tracking started · 86.99% ±3.49 11.8K openings

78.5% 89.0% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/58?window=24h) | 1,504 | 88.94% ±9.76 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/58?window=7d) | 9,927 | 86.94% ±3.80 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/58) | 11.8K | 86.99% ±3.49 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/58?window=all) | 11.8K | 86.99% ±3.49 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,534 1,534 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $688 688 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.85× |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $525 525 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.06× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $381 381 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 10 | 7.1 | 1.41× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 588 | $291 291 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 19 | 20.1 | 0.95× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $186 186 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 35 | 35.5 | 0.99× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 44 | 47.3 | 0.93× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $87.67 87.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 77 | 76.9 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 114 | 112.3 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $36.16 36.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 109 | 118.2 | 0.92× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $25.68 25.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 110 | 118.2 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $22.68 22.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 117 | 118.2 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $21.11 21.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 104 | 118.2 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $20.07 20.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 120 | 118.2 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $19.02 19.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 127 | 118.2 | 1.07× |
| [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $18.38 18.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 106 | 118.2 | 0.90× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-ancient-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $17.69 17.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 215 | 224.7 | 0.96× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $16.84 16.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 310 | 295.6 | 1.05× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $16.51 16.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 382 | 354.7 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $15.31 15.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 474 | 473.0 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Hades (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $14.70 14.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 495 | 473.0 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $13.80 13.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 493 | 473.0 | 1.04× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $12.22 12.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 424 | 473.0 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $11.51 11.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 484 | 473.0 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $10.79 10.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 487 | 473.0 | 1.03× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $9.98 9.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 455 | 473.0 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $8.40 8.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 590 | 591.2 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Watchdog (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $7.67 7.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 711 | 709.4 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $7.17 7.17 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 725 | 709.4 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $6.85 6.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 661 | 709.4 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $6.77 6.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 187 | 709.4 | 0.26× |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $6.47 6.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 673 | 709.4 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Incinegator (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-incinegator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $5.84 5.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 651 | 650.3 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $5.65 5.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 553 | 532.1 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-impire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.64 5.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 496 | 473.0 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $5.24 5.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 358 | 354.7 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $4.07 4.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 104 | 354.7 | 0.29× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) [MainOfRengar](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/MainOfRengar) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,534 1,534 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 98.63x 2026-11-08 16:34 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) [Cigtar](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cigtar) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $688 688 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 44.27x 2026-11-08 02:34 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) [Kn1gh1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kn1gh1) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $688 688 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 44.27x 2026-11-06 23:55 UTC

[★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-well-worn) [JUST DO IT](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/JUST%20DO%20IT) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $525 525 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.74x 2026-11-09 00:57 UTC

[★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-well-worn) [Физкульт Привет](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%A4%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%82%20%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%82) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $525 525 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.74x 2026-11-06 18:01 UTC

[★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-well-worn) [Fleming](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fleming) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $525 525 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.74x 2026-11-06 07:36 UTC

[★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-well-worn) [fhenrique666](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fhenrique666) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $525 525 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.74x 2026-11-04 08:21 UTC

[★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-well-worn) [Abbyyy 💚](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Abbyyy%20%F0%9F%92%9A) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $525 525 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.74x 2026-11-03 20:31 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=58)

[XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-factory-new) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.67 7.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[AUG | Fleet Flock (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-well-worn) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.22 12.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.79x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Souvenir M4A4 | Hellish (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-hellish-well-worn) [hakdog](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/hakdog) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $25.68 25.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.65x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) [Cedník \<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cedn%C3%ADk%20%3C3) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $22.68 22.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.46x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-minimal-wear) [Katos](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Katos) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.51 16.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.06x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) [Cedník \<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cedn%C3%ADk%20%3C3) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $13.80 13.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.89x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Impire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-impire-minimal-wear) [Katos](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Katos) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.64 5.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) [Jodak](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Jodak) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.65 5.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) [Ev1l](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ev1l) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.77 6.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-minimal-wear) [aBoBocka](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/aBoBocka) $15.55 15.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.24x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $15.55 | 87.40% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $15.55 | 87.35% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $15.55 | 87.47% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 6.0% covert 1.1% covert knife 0.3% sunny 0.3% industrial 8.0% pink 9.5% Classified 7.0% classified 31.5% Restricted 8.4% #d32ee6 3.0% restricted 14.0% violet 5.0% uncommon 6.0% best hit $1,534 (98.63x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.40 on average: an expected loss of $12.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt