---
title: "Diablo Howl case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Diablo Howl ($24.75) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.47% from 33 items with odds, observed 80.99% over 9,392 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/59
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Diablo Howl](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/59)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Diablo Howl

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hot Pizzas), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/59?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/59?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/59) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/59?window=all)

Price · $24.75 · 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 92.47% · EV $22.89 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.99% · 9,392 openings, odds method

Variance · 28.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.31% ±32.13 1,044 openings

7 days · 80.76% ±11.74 7,842 openings

30 days · 80.99% ±10.72 9,392 openings

since tracking started · 80.99% ±10.72 9,392 openings

47.5% 80.3% 113.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 93.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (70.26% – 91.71%, 9,392 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/59?window=24h) | 1,044 | 80.31% ±32.1 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/59?window=7d) | 7,842 | 80.76% ±11.7 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/59) | 9,392 | 80.99% ±10.7 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/59?window=all) | 9,392 | 80.99% ±10.7 | −2.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,405 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $7,837 7,837 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.8% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $2,336 2,336 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 8.2% | 3 | 7.5 | 0.40× |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $373 373 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 14 | 18.8 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $214 214 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 20 | 23.5 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $211 211 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 32 | 28.2 | 1.13× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $177 177 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 39 | 32.9 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $127 127 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 32 | 37.6 | 0.85× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $116 116 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 52 | 56.4 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $56.22 56.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 59 | 65.8 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $50.68 50.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 61 | 75.2 | 0.81× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $40.16 40.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 65 | 75.2 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $39.00 39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 15 | 84.6 | 0.18× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $36.31 36.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 88 | 84.6 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $36.02 36.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 69 | 94.0 | 0.73× |
| [P90 \| Baroque Red (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $34.40 34.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 96 | 94.0 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $30.61 30.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 102 | 94.0 | 1.08× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $24.68 24.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 132 | 150.5 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $23.28 23.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 202 | 188.1 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $20.87 20.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 354 | 376.2 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $19.75 19.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 590 | 564.3 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $18.65 18.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.5% | 763 | 752.4 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Phoenix Chalk (Well-Worn) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-phoenix-chalk-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $18.11 18.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.3% | 752 | 752.4 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $15.04 15.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.3% | 706 | 752.4 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $14.70 14.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 766 | 752.4 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $12.68 12.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 682 | 658.3 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $12.14 12.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 626 | 658.3 | 0.95× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $11.88 11.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 670 | 658.3 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $10.69 10.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 560 | 564.3 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-converter-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $9.01 9.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 109 | 470.2 | 0.23× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $8.17 8.17 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 464 | 470.2 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $7.21 7.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 325 | 376.2 | 0.86× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $6.71 6.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 392 | 376.2 | 1.04× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [Asuna Yuuki](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Asuna%20Yuuki) $24.75 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,336 2,336 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 94.37x 2026-11-10 04:25 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [Ryuneko Meowtoi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ryuneko%20Meowtoi) $24.75 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,336 2,336 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 94.37x 2026-11-09 16:45 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [exy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/exy) $24.75 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,336 2,336 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 94.37x 2026-11-03 12:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=59)

[SG 553 | Colony IV (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) [Cocoaboaro](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cocoaboaro) $24.75 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $8.17 8.17 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) [40kg kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/40kg%20kid) $24.75 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $39.00 39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.58x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M4A4 | The Battlestar (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-well-worn) [Anne Frank](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Anne%20Frank) $24.75 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $36.02 36.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.46x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[SG 553 | Colony IV (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) [Bod](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bod) $24.75 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $8.17 8.17 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) [Dr Doctor.AM](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Dr%20Doctor.AM) $24.75 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $15.04 15.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[M4A4 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-minimal-wear) [boop](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/boop) $24.75 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $14.70 14.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) [Mobius](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Mobius) $24.75 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.68 12.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) [不拿控制 死 全 家](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E4%B8%8D%E6%8B%BF%E6%8E%A7%E5%88%B6%20%E6%AD%BB%20%E5%85%A8%20%E5%AE%B6) $24.75 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.14 12.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) [Liz\`\[A\].eZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Liz%60%5BA%5D.eZ) $24.75 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.68 12.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) [☯•S么MUR么I•☯](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%AF%E2%80%A2S%E4%B9%88MUR%E4%B9%88I%E2%80%A2%E2%98%AF) $24.75 24.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.68 12.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $24.75 | 92.47% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $24.75 | 93.11% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $24.75 | 93.56% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% classified 18.5% #eb4b4b 0.1% covert 0.9% red 1.3% Covert 0.4% mil spec 2.6% restricted 8.8% rare 0.8% Legendary 0.9% Restricted 8.6% industrial 18.0% other 8.0% pink 22.0% Rare 5.0% Industrial Grade 4.0% best hit $2,336 (94.37x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.47 on average: an expected loss of $7.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt