---
title: "Cheesy Dragon case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Cheesy Dragon ($96.50) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.45% from 39 items with odds, observed 88.37% over 5,989 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/60
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Cheesy Dragon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/60)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Cheesy Dragon

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hot Pizzas), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/60?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/60?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/60) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/60?window=all)

Price · $96.50 · 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 84.45% · EV $81.49 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.37% · 5,989 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.22% ±8.70 752 openings

7 days · 88.94% ±3.38 5,007 openings

30 days · 88.37% ±3.09 5,989 openings

since tracking started · 88.37% ±3.09 5,989 openings

81.0% 90.3% 99.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 84.60% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.28% – 91.47%, 5,989 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/60?window=24h) | 752 | 90.22% ±8.70 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/60?window=7d) | 5,007 | 88.94% ±3.38 | +2.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/60) | 5,989 | 88.37% ±3.09 | +2.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/60?window=all) | 5,989 | 88.37% ±3.09 | +2.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,005 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,409 6,409 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,685 2,685 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.50× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,509 2,509 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,333 1,333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 6 | 2.4 | 2.50× |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,058 1,058 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $680 680 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 17 | 18.0 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $531 531 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 38 | 30.0 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $408 408 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 31 | 33.0 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-queens-gambit-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $351 351 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 39 | 36.0 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $258 258 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 27 | 36.0 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $216 216 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 45 | 36.0 | 1.25× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-crakow-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $205 205 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 44 | 39.0 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $176 176 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 35 | 42.0 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 57 | 60.0 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $161 161 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 62 | 60.0 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $153 153 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 94 | 120.1 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $142 142 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 161 | 180.1 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-queens-gambit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $139 139 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 173 | 180.1 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $109 109 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 169 | 180.1 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $103 103 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 156 | 180.1 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $99.50 99.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 248 | 240.2 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $92.58 92.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 233 | 240.2 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $86.72 86.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 228 | 240.2 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $81.61 81.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 230 | 240.2 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $71.33 71.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 231 | 240.2 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $69.02 69.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 297 | 300.2 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $68.96 68.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 326 | 300.2 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $55.25 55.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 303 | 300.2 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $47.08 47.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 325 | 300.2 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $42.15 42.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 317 | 300.2 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $39.22 39.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 300 | 318.3 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $36.50 36.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 236 | 240.2 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $34.54 34.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 258 | 240.2 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $32.16 32.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 213 | 240.2 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $31.22 31.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 240 | 240.2 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $30.62 30.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 250 | 240.2 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $29.48 29.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 197 | 180.1 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $25.80 25.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 199 | 180.1 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $21.82 21.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 175 | 180.1 | 0.97× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [dXlm](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/dXlm) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6,409 6,409 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 66.41x 2026-11-06 23:59 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [FAiz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FAiz) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6,409 6,409 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 66.41x 2026-11-06 19:48 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [cn0x](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/cn0x) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6,409 6,409 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 66.41x 2026-11-04 17:56 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [✪ 2easy4me ;)](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%9C%AA%202easy4me%20%3B%29) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,685 2,685 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 27.82x 2026-11-08 23:33 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [Flip kitten :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Flip%20kitten%20%3A3) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,685 2,685 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 27.82x 2026-11-06 08:09 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [Psy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Psy) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,685 2,685 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 27.82x 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) [чел с завода](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BB%20%D1%81%20%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,509 2,509 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 26.00x 2026-11-11 08:57 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) [✪ Baoon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%9C%AA%20Baoon) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,509 2,509 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 26.00x 2026-11-05 12:34 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) [BIG DICK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BIG%20DICK) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,333 1,333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 13.81x 2026-11-10 11:08 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) [AKloading](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AKloading) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,333 1,333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 13.81x 2026-11-10 05:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=60)

[AWP | Electric Hive (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-well-worn) [fygozerAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fygozerAA) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $47.08 47.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) [eternity :v](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/eternity%20%3Av) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $39.22 39.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) [Danjgem](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Danjgem) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $31.22 31.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) [𝓛𝓲𝓬𝓴 𝓶𝓮](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%F0%9D%93%9B%F0%9D%93%B2%F0%9D%93%AC%F0%9D%93%B4%20%F0%9D%93%B6%F0%9D%93%AE) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $68.96 68.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) [kaijin1go](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/kaijin1go) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $36.50 36.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-electric-hive-factory-new) [Bigtymer85](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bigtymer85) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $109 109 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.13x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[AWP | Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) [Anne Frank](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Anne%20Frank) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $34.54 34.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) [不拿控制 死 全 家](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E4%B8%8D%E6%8B%BF%E6%8E%A7%E5%88%B6%20%E6%AD%BB%20%E5%85%A8%20%E5%AE%B6) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $36.50 36.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) [Claraaa-](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Claraaa-) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $30.62 30.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-field-tested) [Claraaa-](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Claraaa-) $96.50 96.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $29.48 29.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $96.50 | 84.45% | 39 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $96.50 | 84.64% | 39 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $96.50 | 84.66% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 27.2% classified 16.6% Legendary 1.3% Ancient 7.0% epic 3.0% red 16.0% #eb4b4b 4.0% rare 10.0% Classified 5.0% industrial 4.0% restricted 3.0% #d32ce6 3.0% best hit $6,409 (66.41x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.45 on average: an expected loss of $15.55 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt