---
title: "Monster \"A\" case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Monster \"A\" ($2.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.28% from 33 items with odds, observed 87.48% over 33.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/62
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Monster "A"](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/62)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Monster "A"

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Monster Pizza), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/62?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/62?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/62) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/62?window=all)

Price · $2.00 · 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 87.28% · EV $1.75 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.48% · 33.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.82% ±8.76 3,759 openings

7 days · 86.77% ±3.21 27.9K openings

30 days · 87.48% ±2.95 33.3K openings

since tracking started · 87.48% ±2.95 33.3K openings

79.5% 88.8% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/62?window=24h) | 3,759 | 88.82% ±8.76 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/62?window=7d) | 27.9K | 86.77% ±3.21 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/62) | 33.3K | 87.48% ±2.95 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/62?window=all) | 33.3K | 87.48% ±2.95 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 7.6% | 36 | 33.4 | 1.08× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $53.60 53.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.1% | 74 | 66.7 | 1.11× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $52.61 52.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.0% | 66 | 66.7 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $27.13 27.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 51 | 66.7 | 0.76× |
| [SSG 08 \| Detour (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $14.89 14.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 56 | 66.7 | 0.84× |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $6.44 6.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 126 | 133.4 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $6.05 6.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 167 | 166.8 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $5.36 5.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 180 | 200.1 | 0.90× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $4.64 4.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 199 | 233.5 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $3.01 3.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 485 | 466.9 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $2.38 2.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 653 | 667.1 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.26 2.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 599 | 667.1 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.06 2.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 995 | 1000.6 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.82 1.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 1,183 | 1167.4 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.75 1.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 1,144 | 1334.1 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Control (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.62 1.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 1,354 | 1334.1 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.58 1.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 1,371 | 1334.1 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-corinthian-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.46 1.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 1,305 | 1334.1 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.43 1.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 1,686 | 1667.6 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.34 1.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 1,674 | 1667.6 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.25 1.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 1,450 | 1667.6 | 0.87× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $1.22 1.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 2,023 | 2001.2 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Randy Rush (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-randy-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 2,009 | 2334.7 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.07 1.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 2,007 | 2001.2 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-block-18-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $1.04 1.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 1,672 | 1667.6 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Zeno (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.95 0.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 1,677 | 1667.6 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.80 0.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 1,631 | 1667.6 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.77 0.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 1,630 | 1667.6 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.66 0.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 1,364 | 1334.1 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.62 0.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 1,329 | 1334.1 | 1.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Tango (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-tango-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.53 0.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 997 | 1000.6 | 1.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.36 0.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 661 | 667.1 | 0.99× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.24 0.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 638 | 667.1 | 0.96× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Fizzknot](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fizzknot) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 66.09x 2026-11-10 22:22 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [ЧУХАН ЕБАНЫЙ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%A7%D0%A3%D0%A5%D0%90%D0%9D%20%D0%95%D0%91%D0%90%D0%9D%D0%AB%D0%99) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 66.09x 2026-11-10 20:34 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [NyanCat K1's Cat](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/NyanCat%20K1's%20Cat) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 66.09x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [IEndY](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/IEndY) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 66.09x 2026-11-10 16:01 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [сперма на асфальте](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BC%D0%B0%20%D0%BD%D0%B0%20%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%84%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%82%D0%B5) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 66.09x 2026-11-10 15:00 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Дымок x Drochilla](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%94%D1%8B%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%BA%20x%20Drochilla) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 66.09x 2026-11-09 21:16 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Chigun|easy-drops.net](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chigun%7Ceasy-drops.net) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 66.09x 2026-11-09 09:22 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [MadzZzy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/MadzZzy) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 66.09x 2026-11-08 18:59 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Трэнси](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%A2%D1%80%D1%8D%D0%BD%D1%81%D0%B8) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 66.09x 2026-11-08 18:11 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Noobel](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Noobel) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 66.09x 2026-11-08 11:55 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=62)

[StatTrak™ P90 | Randy Rush (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-randy-rush-field-tested) [FR3Z4 key-drop.com csgetto.bet](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FR3Z4%20key-drop.com%20csgetto.bet) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) [NevilleChamberlain™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/NevilleChamberlain%E2%84%A2) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.22 1.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-block-18-battle-scarred) [Serial](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Serial) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.04 1.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Randy Rush (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-randy-rush-field-tested) [FUCK ISAC](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FUCK%20ISAC) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[SSG 08 | Zeno (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-factory-new) [★ Quantum](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%85%20Quantum) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.95 0.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-factory-new) [Egglertree](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Egglertree) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.77 0.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Randy Rush (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-randy-rush-field-tested) [Harumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Harumi) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) [Galatiano keyDrop.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Galatiano%20keyDrop.com) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.80 0.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Randy Rush (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-randy-rush-field-tested) [Galatiano keyDrop.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Galatiano%20keyDrop.com) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.43 1.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $2.00 | 87.28% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 08:11 UTC | $2.00 | 87.04% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $2.00 | 87.37% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Immortal 0.1% Covert 0.2% #ffd700 0.2% #4B69FF 0.2% mil spec 4.2% Industrial Grade 0.4% Rare 10.5% restricted 11.0% pink 0.7% Mythical 9.0% milspec 12.0% Mil Spec Grade 3.5% Restricted 9.0% #8847ff 14.0% uncommon 4.0% violet 11.0% #4b69ff 10.0% best hit $132 (66.09x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.28 on average: an expected loss of $12.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt