---
title: "Octopiuzz case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Octopiuzz ($3.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 115.91% from 34 items with odds, observed 113.32% over 21.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/63
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Octopiuzz](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/63)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Octopiuzz

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/63?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/63?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/63) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/63?window=all)

Price · $3.00 · 3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 115.91% · EV $3.48 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 113.32% · 21.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 113.64% ±8.21 2,395 openings

7 days · 113.67% ±3.03 17.6K openings

30 days · 113.32% ±2.76 21.3K openings

since tracking started · 113.32% ±2.76 21.3K openings

105.0% 113.8% 122.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/63?window=24h) | 2,395 | 113.64% ±8.21 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/63?window=7d) | 17.6K | 113.67% ±3.03 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/63) | 21.3K | 113.32% ±2.76 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/63?window=all) | 21.3K | 113.32% ±2.76 | −1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 1 | 10.7 | 0.09× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $80.11 80.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 0 | 21.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 4) weapon · red · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-4) | 1 in 400 | $75.52 75.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.4% | 48 | 53.3 | 0.90× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $33.94 33.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 2 | 53.3 | 0.04× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $28.63 28.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 64 | 74.6 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $24.30 24.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 1 | 74.6 | 0.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $18.29 18.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 89 | 95.9 | 0.93× |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $15.18 15.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 104 | 106.6 | 0.98× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-rameses-reach-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $14.57 14.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 108 | 127.9 | 0.84× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $11.09 11.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 120 | 149.2 | 0.80× |
| [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $7.52 7.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 159 | 170.6 | 0.93× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $6.49 6.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 175 | 191.9 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $5.96 5.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 171 | 213.2 | 0.80× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $4.63 4.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 261 | 234.5 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $4.52 4.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 348 | 341.1 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.77 3.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 863 | 852.8 | 1.01× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $3.68 3.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 853 | 852.8 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $3.53 3.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 968 | 959.4 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.23 3.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 1,066 | 1066.0 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.11 3.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 1,089 | 1066.0 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.05 3.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 1,028 | 1066.0 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $3.00 3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 1,215 | 1172.7 | 1.04× |
| [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $2.65 2.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 1,265 | 1279.3 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $2.64 2.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 1,145 | 1172.7 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.59 2.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 38 | 1279.3 | 0.03× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.46 2.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 1,244 | 1279.3 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-retrobution-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $2.27 2.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 1,267 | 1279.3 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.15 2.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 1,177 | 1172.7 | 1.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.56 1.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 1,063 | 1066.0 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.42 1.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 1,068 | 1066.0 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.34 1.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 35 | 852.8 | 0.04× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $1.30 1.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 12 | 639.6 | 0.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $1.03 1.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 666 | 639.6 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.79 0.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 651 | 639.6 | 1.02× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=63)

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-retrobution-well-worn) [Asta #HowlGG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Asta%20%23HowlGG) $3.00 3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.27 2.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.76x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC

[Souvenir Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-field-tested) [Asta #HowlGG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Asta%20%23HowlGG) $3.00 3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.65 2.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.88x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-factory-new) [Asta #HowlGG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Asta%20%23HowlGG) $3.00 3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.00 3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.00x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) [Fariidd](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fariidd) $3.00 3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.56 1.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.52x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) [Fariidd](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fariidd) $3.00 3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.64 2.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.88x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) [Fariidd](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fariidd) $3.00 3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.52 4.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.51x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) [Fariidd](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fariidd) $3.00 3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.56 1.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.52x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-retrobution-well-worn) [Fariidd](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fariidd) $3.00 3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.27 2.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.76x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) [Fariidd](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fariidd) $3.00 3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.68 3.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.23x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC

[P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) [AxillV](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AxillV) $3.00 3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.34 1.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $3.00 | 115.91% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $3.00 | 115.91% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% red 0.3% classified 5.7% Covert 0.3% restricted 13.1% Mil Spec 0.5% mil spec 0.5% Uncommon 0.7% industrial 5.8% Mil Spec Grade 7.0% Legendary 1.1% #8847ff 8.0% pink 4.0% #4b69ff 5.0% Rare 10.5% Restricted 5.5% Mythical 29.0% violet 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 115.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $115.91 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt