---
title: "Tigerzz case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Tigerzz ($8.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 105.07% from 35 items with odds, observed 101.77% over 12.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/64
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Tigerzz](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/64)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Tigerzz

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/64?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/64?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/64) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/64?window=all)

Price · $8.00 · 8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 105.07% · EV $8.41 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 101.77% · 12.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.39% ±10.85 1,568 openings

7 days · 102.50% ±4.19 10.5K openings

30 days · 101.77% ±3.84 12.5K openings

since tracking started · 101.77% ±3.84 12.5K openings

84.0% 95.8% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/64?window=24h) | 1,568 | 95.39% ±10.9 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/64?window=7d) | 10.5K | 102.50% ±4.19 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/64) | 12.5K | 101.77% ±3.84 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/64?window=all) | 12.5K | 101.77% ±3.84 | −1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $328 328 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 6 | 12.6 | 0.48× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $250 250 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 19 | 12.6 | 1.51× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $231 231 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 13 | 18.9 | 0.69× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $126 126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 19 | 25.2 | 0.76× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $68.33 68.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 35 | 37.7 | 0.93× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $57.68 57.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 41 | 44.0 | 0.93× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $45.17 45.17 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 50 | 50.3 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $32.62 32.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 47 | 50.3 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $26.51 26.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 58 | 62.9 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-bloomstick-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $24.32 24.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 68 | 62.9 | 1.08× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $21.61 21.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 80 | 75.5 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $20.59 20.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 67 | 88.1 | 0.76× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $18.22 18.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 102 | 100.6 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $16.70 16.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 104 | 113.2 | 0.92× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $13.85 13.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 200 | 188.7 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $12.24 12.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 168 | 188.7 | 0.89× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $11.54 11.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 260 | 251.6 | 1.03× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $10.68 10.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 320 | 314.5 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $9.89 9.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 395 | 377.4 | 1.05× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $8.94 8.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 424 | 440.3 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $8.27 8.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 509 | 503.2 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.74 7.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 603 | 628.9 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $7.39 7.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 700 | 691.8 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $7.14 7.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 774 | 754.7 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $6.38 6.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.3% | 859 | 880.5 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $5.73 5.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 764 | 754.7 | 1.01× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $5.69 5.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 923 | 880.5 | 1.05× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.53 5.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 788 | 754.7 | 1.04× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $4.44 4.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 736 | 754.7 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.00 4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 615 | 628.9 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.32 3.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 617 | 628.9 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.22 3.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 653 | 628.9 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.99 2.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 562 | 566.1 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.56 2.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 472 | 503.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2.12 2.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 528 | 503.2 | 1.05× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=64)

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) [Ðēåđ\_şĥøŧ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C3%90%C4%93%C3%A5%C4%91_%C5%9F%C4%A5%C3%B8%C5%A7%E2%84%A2) $8.00 8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.44 4.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) [Ðēåđ\_şĥøŧ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C3%90%C4%93%C3%A5%C4%91_%C5%9F%C4%A5%C3%B8%C5%A7%E2%84%A2) $8.00 8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.54 11.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.44x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) [Ðēåđ\_şĥøŧ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C3%90%C4%93%C3%A5%C4%91_%C5%9F%C4%A5%C3%B8%C5%A7%E2%84%A2) $8.00 8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.38 6.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.80x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) [Chazam Carai](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chazam%20Carai) $8.00 8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.89 9.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.24x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) [☣WOLFS☣ HETTIX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%A3WOLFS%E2%98%A3%20HETTIX) $8.00 8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.39 7.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.92x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) [☣WOLFS☣ HETTIX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%A3WOLFS%E2%98%A3%20HETTIX) $8.00 8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $250 250 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 31.23x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) [Alex4 hellcase.org](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Alex4%20hellcase.org) $8.00 8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.73 5.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) [Alex4 hellcase.org](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Alex4%20hellcase.org) $8.00 8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.56 2.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) [Chocolate 🦄🦄](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chocolate%20%F0%9F%A6%84%F0%9F%A6%84) $8.00 8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.56 2.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) [Alex4 hellcase.org](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Alex4%20hellcase.org) $8.00 8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.53 5.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.69x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $8.00 | 105.07% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 1.0% covert 0.5% Legendary 5.4% restricted 38.6% Classified 8.5% classified 8.5% mil spec 10.4% #d32ee6 5.5% consumer 5.0% Restricted 7.0% Mythical 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 4.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 105.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $105.07 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt