---
title: "French fries case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "French fries ($3.99) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.69% from 39 items with odds, observed 87.15% over 18.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/65
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [French fries](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/65)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · French fries

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Special Combo), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/65?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/65?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/65) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/65?window=all)

Price · $3.99 · 3.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 89.69% · EV $3.58 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.15% · 18.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.67% ±6.04 2,210 openings

7 days · 87.29% ±2.29 15.4K openings

30 days · 87.15% ±2.09 18.5K openings

since tracking started · 87.15% ±2.09 18.5K openings

83.0% 89.8% 96.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.69% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.07% – 89.24%, 18,531 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/65?window=24h) | 2,210 | 89.67% ±6.04 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/65?window=7d) | 15.4K | 87.29% ±2.29 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/65) | 18.5K | 87.15% ±2.09 | −2.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/65?window=all) | 18.5K | 87.15% ±2.09 | −2.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $128 128 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 17 | 18.6 | 0.92× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $49.23 49.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 34 | 37.1 | 0.92× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $47.06 47.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 52 | 55.7 | 0.93× |
| [P90 \| Baroque Red (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $22.92 22.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 59 | 74.3 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $18.16 18.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 83 | 92.9 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $17.35 17.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 79 | 92.9 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $14.84 14.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 125 | 111.4 | 1.12× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $13.38 13.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 118 | 130.0 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Curse (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-curse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $12.13 12.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 81 | 111.4 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $11.87 11.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 120 | 130.0 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $9.10 9.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 150 | 148.6 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $7.26 7.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 150 | 148.6 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $6.54 6.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 184 | 185.7 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $5.14 5.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 287 | 278.6 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $4.40 4.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 358 | 371.4 | 0.96× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $4.22 4.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 354 | 371.4 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.10 4.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 184 | 185.7 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $4.04 4.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 499 | 464.3 | 1.07× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.84 3.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 552 | 557.1 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $3.74 3.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 729 | 742.8 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.59 3.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 709 | 742.8 | 0.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.41 3.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 686 | 742.8 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.34 3.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 748 | 742.8 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.11 3.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 936 | 928.5 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $2.96 2.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.6% | 1,231 | 1262.8 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.84 2.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 910 | 928.5 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.45 2.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 967 | 928.5 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.38 2.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 917 | 928.5 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.26 2.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 747 | 742.8 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2.18 2.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 758 | 742.8 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.87 1.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 777 | 742.8 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-zubastick-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.75 1.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 702 | 742.8 | 0.95× |
| [AUG \| Storm (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.55 1.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 560 | 557.1 | 1.01× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.54 1.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 795 | 742.8 | 1.07× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.46 1.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 605 | 557.1 | 1.09× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $1.25 1.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 572 | 557.1 | 1.03× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.06 1.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 566 | 557.1 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-metallic-squeezer-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.96 0.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 604 | 557.1 | 1.08× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.83 0.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 566 | 557.1 | 1.02× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=65)

[Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) [Harumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Harumi) $3.99 3.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.26 2.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [Harumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Harumi) $3.99 3.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.18 2.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) [A Dyslexic Cobra](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/A%20Dyslexic%20Cobra) $3.99 3.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.84 2.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) [A Dyslexic Cobra](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/A%20Dyslexic%20Cobra) $3.99 3.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.11 3.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) [A Dyslexic Cobra](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/A%20Dyslexic%20Cobra) $3.99 3.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.06 1.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Spider Lily (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) [A Dyslexic Cobra](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/A%20Dyslexic%20Cobra) $3.99 3.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.87 11.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.97x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Spider Lily (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) [smelvin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/smelvin) $3.99 3.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.87 11.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.97x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $3.99 3.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.96 2.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.74x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[AUG | Storm (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-factory-new) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $3.99 3.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.55 1.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-field-tested) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $3.99 3.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.59 3.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $3.99 | 89.69% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 3.0% covert 0.1% Restricted 11.0% gold 0.3% mil spec 2.4% classified 2.5% Mythical 0.6% restricted 30.4% SMGs 0.6% violet 0.8% pink 8.3% #8847ff 7.0% Mil Spec Grade 4.0% Mil Spec 5.0% blue 12.0% #4b69ff 5.0% Rare 4.0% consumer 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.69 on average: an expected loss of $10.31 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt