---
title: "Shake case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Shake ($5.99) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.76% from 41 items with odds, observed 87.36% over 14.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/66
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Shake](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/66)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Shake

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Special Combo), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/66?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/66?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/66) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/66?window=all)

Price · $5.99 · 5.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 85.76% · EV $5.14 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.36% · 14.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.54% ±8.86 1,644 openings

7 days · 87.82% ±3.31 11.8K openings

30 days · 87.36% ±3.02 14.2K openings

since tracking started · 87.36% ±3.02 14.2K openings

79.0% 88.5% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/66?window=24h) | 1,644 | 88.54% ±8.86 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/66?window=7d) | 11.8K | 87.82% ±3.31 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/66) | 14.2K | 87.36% ±3.02 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/66?window=all) | 14.2K | 87.36% ±3.02 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $274 274 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.3% | 22 | 14.2 | 1.55× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $161 161 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 17 | 14.2 | 1.20× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $48.88 48.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 24 | 28.4 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $37.81 37.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 55 | 56.8 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $35.22 35.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 84 | 85.2 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $23.82 23.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 73 | 85.2 | 0.86× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $19.61 19.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 84 | 85.2 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $17.36 17.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 92 | 99.4 | 0.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $16.38 16.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 92 | 99.4 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-entombed-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $11.45 11.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 131 | 142.0 | 0.92× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $10.46 10.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 131 | 142.0 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $9.23 9.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 136 | 142.0 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $7.46 7.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 151 | 142.0 | 1.06× |
| [MP7 \| Asterion (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $7.18 7.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 143 | 142.0 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $6.68 6.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 450 | 426.1 | 1.06× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $6.47 6.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 408 | 426.1 | 0.96× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $6.28 6.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 391 | 426.1 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $6.00 6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 448 | 426.1 | 1.05× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $5.65 5.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 409 | 426.1 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-zx-spectron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $5.51 5.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 452 | 426.1 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5.21 5.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 415 | 426.1 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $4.67 4.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 402 | 426.1 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Balance (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-balance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $4.62 4.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 414 | 426.1 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.49 4.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 435 | 426.1 | 1.02× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $4.33 4.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 394 | 426.1 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.88 3.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 590 | 568.2 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.70 3.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 600 | 568.2 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $3.46 3.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 553 | 568.2 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.08 3.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 544 | 568.2 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.01 3.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 715 | 710.2 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-bi83-spectrum-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.86 2.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 577 | 568.2 | 1.02× |
| [MP7 \| Sunbaked (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.54 2.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 529 | 568.2 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $2.46 2.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 561 | 568.2 | 0.99× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.44 2.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 591 | 568.2 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $2.32 2.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 604 | 568.2 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.27 2.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 411 | 426.1 | 0.96× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.87 1.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 434 | 426.1 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.52 1.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 431 | 426.1 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $1.40 1.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 466 | 426.1 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.35 1.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 438 | 426.1 | 1.03× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.89 0.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 308 | 284.1 | 1.08× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=66)

[Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) [Jam Jam](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Jam%20Jam) $5.99 5.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.33 4.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-zx-spectron-battle-scarred) [Cheri Lady](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cheri%20Lady) $5.99 5.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.51 5.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.92x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-battle-scarred) [Foex](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Foex) $5.99 5.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.00 6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.00x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) [Cheri Lady](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cheri%20Lady) $5.99 5.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.68 6.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.12x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) [Foex](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Foex) $5.99 5.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.88 3.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) [HOOOODINI](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HOOOODINI) $5.99 5.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.28 6.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.05x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-field-tested) [HOOOODINI](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HOOOODINI) $5.99 5.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.52 1.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-battle-scarred) [Sooto](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sooto) $5.99 5.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.89 0.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) [Sooto](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sooto) $5.99 5.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.36 17.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.90x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) [fonky monky](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fonky%20monky) $5.99 5.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.65 5.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $5.99 | 85.76% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.1% covert 0.1% classified 10.1% Mythical 6.4% #d32ee6 0.6% restricted 12.7% Classified 1.0% consumer 1.0% Legendary 10.0% pink 3.0% Mil Spec Grade 3.0% milspec 3.0% violet 9.0% Restricted 8.0% blue 8.0% mil spec 4.0% #8847ff 12.0% Common 4.0% Rare 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.76 on average: an expected loss of $14.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt