---
title: "Donut case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Donut ($7.99) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.90% from 42 items with odds, observed 85.65% over 12.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/67
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Donut](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/67)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Donut

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Special Combo), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/67?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/67?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/67) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/67?window=all)

Price · $7.99 · 7.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 86.90% · EV $6.94 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.65% · 12.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.11% ±11.39 1,491 openings

7 days · 83.89% ±4.26 10.6K openings

30 days · 85.65% ±3.92 12.6K openings

since tracking started · 85.65% ±3.92 12.6K openings

73.0% 85.0% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/67?window=24h) | 1,491 | 85.11% ±11.4 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/67?window=7d) | 10.6K | 83.89% ±4.26 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/67) | 12.6K | 85.65% ±3.92 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/67?window=all) | 12.6K | 85.65% ±3.92 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $373 373 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.4% | 16 | 12.6 | 1.27× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $244 244 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.71× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $208 208 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.0% | 21 | 25.2 | 0.83× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $126 126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 27 | 25.2 | 1.07× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $41.62 41.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 32 | 37.8 | 0.85× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $37.39 37.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 38 | 37.8 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Latte Rush (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-latte-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $28.14 28.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 49 | 50.4 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $24.83 24.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 58 | 50.4 | 1.15× |
| [P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $20.53 20.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 64 | 75.5 | 0.85× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $18.00 18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 85 | 88.1 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $17.90 17.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 75 | 88.1 | 0.85× |
| [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $16.86 16.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 108 | 125.9 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $15.11 15.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 111 | 125.9 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $13.84 13.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 114 | 125.9 | 0.91× |
| [P90 \| Attack Vector (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $11.40 11.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 114 | 125.9 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $10.07 10.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 115 | 125.9 | 0.91× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $9.95 9.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 137 | 125.9 | 1.09× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $8.66 8.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 112 | 125.9 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $8.46 8.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 266 | 251.8 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $8.09 8.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 385 | 377.6 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Attack Vector (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $7.16 7.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 371 | 377.6 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.43 6.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 398 | 377.6 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $5.94 5.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 402 | 377.6 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5.45 5.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 381 | 377.6 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $5.38 5.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 523 | 503.5 | 1.04× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.24 5.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 626 | 629.4 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Check Engine (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-check-engine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $5.18 5.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 741 | 755.3 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.84 4.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 710 | 755.3 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 885 | 881.2 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.40 4.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 724 | 755.3 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.39 4.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 667 | 629.4 | 1.06× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $4.37 4.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 511 | 503.5 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $4.13 4.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 511 | 503.5 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $4.06 4.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 403 | 377.6 | 1.07× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $2.99 2.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 387 | 377.6 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Electrum (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-electrum-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $2.60 2.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 379 | 377.6 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $2.42 2.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 388 | 377.6 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.03 2.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 389 | 377.6 | 1.03× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $2.00 2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 401 | 377.6 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.72 1.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 349 | 377.6 | 0.92× |
| [P90 \| Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.56 1.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 241 | 251.8 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Minimal Wear) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.02 1.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 265 | 251.8 | 1.05× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=67)

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-factory-new) [40kg kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/40kg%20kid) $7.99 7.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $37.39 37.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.68x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) [40kg kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/40kg%20kid) $7.99 7.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.43 6.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.80x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) [Brutal](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Brutal) $7.99 7.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.38 5.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) [Ðēåđ\_şĥøŧ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C3%90%C4%93%C3%A5%C4%91_%C5%9F%C4%A5%C3%B8%C5%A7%E2%84%A2) $7.99 7.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.94 5.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.74x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-electrum-well-worn) [Brutal](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Brutal) $7.99 7.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.60 2.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) [Ðēåđ\_şĥøŧ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C3%90%C4%93%C3%A5%C4%91_%C5%9F%C4%A5%C3%B8%C5%A7%E2%84%A2) $7.99 7.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.37 4.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[P90 | Attack Vector (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-well-worn) [I-stekan-I](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/I-stekan-I) $7.99 7.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.16 7.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) [I-stekan-I](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/I-stekan-I) $7.99 7.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.45 5.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[SSG 08 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-carbon-fiber-factory-new) [Shmichael](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Shmichael) $7.99 7.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.39 4.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) [Shmichael](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Shmichael) $7.99 7.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $7.99 | 86.90% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% covert knife 0.3% classified 9.4% restricted 27.9% Legendary 0.4% #d32ce6 0.7% industrial 6.0% mil spec 14.0% uncommon 4.0% violet 4.0% blue 3.0% Mythical 7.0% #4b69ff 5.0% other 6.0% #8847ff 4.0% Restricted 6.0% light blue 2.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.90 on average: an expected loss of $13.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt