---
title: "Banana case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Banana ($9.99) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.67% from 46 items with odds, observed 89.32% over 11.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/68
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Banana](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/68)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Banana

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Special Combo), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/68?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/68?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/68) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/68?window=all)

Price · $9.99 · 9.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 91.67% · EV $9.16 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.32% · 11.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.97% ±7.55 1,201 openings

7 days · 90.25% ±2.71 9,355 openings

30 days · 89.32% ±2.46 11.3K openings

since tracking started · 89.32% ±2.46 11.3K openings

81.0% 89.0% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/68?window=24h) | 1,201 | 88.97% ±7.55 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/68?window=7d) | 9,355 | 90.25% ±2.71 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/68) | 11.3K | 89.32% ±2.46 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/68?window=all) | 11.3K | 89.32% ±2.46 | −1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $308 308 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $172 172 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 9 | 11.3 | 0.80× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $90.13 90.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 34 | 33.9 | 1.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $64.69 64.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 22 | 22.6 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $51.41 51.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 29 | 33.9 | 0.86× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $49.42 49.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 26 | 33.9 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $34.43 34.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 48 | 45.2 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $30.67 30.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 84 | 101.7 | 0.83× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $27.54 27.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.0% | 201 | 225.9 | 0.89× |
| [MP7 \| Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $22.37 22.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 35 | 45.2 | 0.77× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $20.27 20.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 106 | 113.0 | 0.94× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $15.83 15.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 122 | 113.0 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-fleet-flock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $14.30 14.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 122 | 113.0 | 1.08× |
| [Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $13.34 13.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 219 | 225.9 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $12.96 12.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 238 | 225.9 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $11.69 11.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 304 | 338.9 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $10.98 10.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 339 | 338.9 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $10.33 10.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 326 | 338.9 | 0.96× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $9.56 9.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 313 | 338.9 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $8.88 8.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 293 | 338.9 | 0.86× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $7.79 7.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 361 | 338.9 | 1.07× |
| [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $7.72 7.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 348 | 338.9 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $7.52 7.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 341 | 338.9 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $7.42 7.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 346 | 338.9 | 1.02× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $7.34 7.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 342 | 338.9 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $7.15 7.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 360 | 338.9 | 1.06× |
| [P250 \| Facets (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6.88 6.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 447 | 451.8 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $6.80 6.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 445 | 451.8 | 0.98× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6.42 6.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 469 | 451.8 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $6.41 6.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 463 | 451.8 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $6.34 6.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 433 | 451.8 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $6.31 6.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 451 | 451.8 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $6.18 6.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 337 | 338.9 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Silent Shot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-silent-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.13 6.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 332 | 338.9 | 0.98× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $5.66 5.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 353 | 338.9 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $5.53 5.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 229 | 225.9 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $5.30 5.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 238 | 225.9 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $5.15 5.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 230 | 225.9 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $4.91 4.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 221 | 225.9 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4.42 4.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 225 | 225.9 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $4.10 4.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 235 | 225.9 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $3.76 3.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 235 | 225.9 | 1.04× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.43 3.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 256 | 225.9 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $3.23 3.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 239 | 225.9 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.77 2.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 243 | 225.9 | 1.08× |
| [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.16 2.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 236 | 225.9 | 1.04× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=68)

[G3SG1 | Orange Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-field-tested) [Akinorisar](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Akinorisar) $9.99 9.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.56 9.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.96x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[P250 | Facets (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-field-tested) [Mouke](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Mouke) $9.99 9.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.88 6.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.69x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[MP7 | Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) [Bob | IFN.GG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bob%20%7C%20IFN.GG) $9.99 9.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.34 7.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.73x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) [DuExplore](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DuExplore) $9.99 9.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.42 4.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.44x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) [Merima](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Merima) $9.99 9.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.79 7.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.78x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[MAG-7 | Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) [Mouke](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Mouke) $9.99 9.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.42 6.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.64x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) [Bob | IFN.GG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bob%20%7C%20IFN.GG) $9.99 9.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.53 5.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.55x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[MP7 | Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) [DuExplore](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DuExplore) $9.99 9.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.34 7.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.73x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[Souvenir Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) [Merima](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Merima) $9.99 9.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.72 7.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.77x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) [Jundy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Jundy) $9.99 9.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.41 6.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.64x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $9.99 | 91.67% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.1% covert 1.2% restricted 10.4% industrial 7.9% classified 19.0% consumer 0.4% Legendary 1.0% Mil Spec Grade 3.0% Classified 3.0% #B0C3D9 3.0% Mil Spec 3.0% mil spec 7.0% uncommon 3.0% pink 10.0% violet 6.0% #8847ff 7.0% #4b69ff 4.0% Rare 3.0% #d32ee6 2.0% Mythical 2.0% Restricted 2.0% milspec 2.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.67 on average: an expected loss of $8.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt