---
title: "Hot Dog case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Hot Dog ($11.99) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.63% from 45 items with odds, observed 82.73% over 10.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/69
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Hot Dog](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/69)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Hot Dog

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Special Combo), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/69?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/69?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/69) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/69?window=all)

Price · $11.99 · 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 86.63% · EV $10.39 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.73% · 10.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.04% ±8.40 1,304 openings

7 days · 82.79% ±3.24 8,745 openings

30 days · 82.73% ±2.95 10.6K openings

since tracking started · 82.73% ±2.95 10.6K openings

73.0% 82.0% 91.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 86.63% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.79% – 85.68%, 10,591 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/69?window=24h) | 1,304 | 82.04% ±8.40 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/69?window=7d) | 8,745 | 82.79% ±3.24 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/69) | 10.6K | 82.73% ±2.95 | −2.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/69?window=all) | 10.6K | 82.73% ±2.95 | −2.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $255 255 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 5 | 10.6 | 0.47× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $243 243 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 19 | 21.2 | 0.89× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $153 153 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 15 | 21.2 | 0.71× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 33 | 31.8 | 1.04× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 25 | 31.8 | 0.78× |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $60.38 60.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 39 | 42.5 | 0.92× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $50.75 50.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 41 | 42.5 | 0.97× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-road-rash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $47.62 47.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 35 | 42.5 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $38.96 38.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 43 | 42.5 | 1.01× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $35.58 35.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 47 | 53.1 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-tranquility-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $32.87 32.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 49 | 53.1 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $30.02 30.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 74 | 74.3 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $28.14 28.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 79 | 74.3 | 1.06× |
| [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Derailment (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-derailment-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $24.62 24.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 91 | 95.5 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $22.08 22.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 107 | 106.2 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $20.86 20.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 89 | 106.2 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $20.30 20.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 104 | 106.2 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Navy Murano (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $17.21 17.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 96 | 106.2 | 0.90× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $15.11 15.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 88 | 106.2 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $14.61 14.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 113 | 106.2 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $14.39 14.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 96 | 106.2 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $13.42 13.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 105 | 106.2 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $12.63 12.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 112 | 106.2 | 1.06× |
| [Nova \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $12.54 12.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 317 | 318.5 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $12.32 12.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 303 | 318.5 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| The End (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $11.06 11.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 301 | 318.5 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $9.87 9.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 425 | 424.6 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $8.22 8.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 467 | 424.6 | 1.10× |
| [FAMAS \| Faulty Wiring (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-faulty-wiring-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $7.18 7.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 413 | 424.6 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $6.90 6.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 429 | 424.6 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6.64 6.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 596 | 530.8 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $6.13 6.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 494 | 530.8 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $6.06 6.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 503 | 530.8 | 0.95× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $6.04 6.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 554 | 530.8 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-zx-spectron-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $5.75 5.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 542 | 530.8 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $5.71 5.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 466 | 424.6 | 1.10× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.56 5.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 437 | 424.6 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.81 4.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 434 | 424.6 | 1.02× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Factory New) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $4.16 4.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 455 | 424.6 | 1.07× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $3.95 3.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 305 | 318.5 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-stymphalian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.79 3.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 418 | 424.6 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.55 3.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 389 | 424.6 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 338 | 318.5 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $3.17 3.17 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 311 | 318.5 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.48 1.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 214 | 212.3 | 1.01× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=69)

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) [fujiaprista](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fujiaprista) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.90 6.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.58x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Factory New) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-factory-new) [G3](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/G3) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.16 4.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-factory-new) [Enter Amano](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Enter%20Amano) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $8.22 8.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.69x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[Souvenir SSG 08 | Detour (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-detour-field-tested) [fujiaprista](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fujiaprista) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.04 6.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[SG 553 | Candy Apple (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-battle-scarred) [G3](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/G3) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.71 5.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.48x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) [Enter Amano](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Enter%20Amano) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.64 6.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.55x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[StatTrak™ AUG | Stymphalian (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-stymphalian-battle-scarred) [CTurtle](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/CTurtle) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.79 3.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[AWP | The End (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-well-worn) [destinyX92](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/destinyX92) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.06 11.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.92x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[MP9 | Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) [Hallzy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Hallzy) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.87 9.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.82x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) [Gomoгей](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gomo%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%B9) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $13.42 13.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.12x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $11.99 | 86.63% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 4.0% covert knife 0.3% epic 0.2% Covert 0.3% covert 0.7% #8847ff 4.4% restricted 26.4% red 0.4% classified 18.9% Classified 3.5% Mythical 4.9% mil spec 1.0% Legendary 1.0% #777777 1.0% pink 11.0% other 4.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% Industrial Grade 7.0% violet 6.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.63 on average: an expected loss of $13.37 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt