---
title: "Burger case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Burger ($14.99) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.75% from 41 items with odds, observed 85.46% over 9,278 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/70
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Burger](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/70)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Burger

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Special Combo), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/70?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/70?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/70) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/70?window=all)

Price · $14.99 · 14.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 87.75% · EV $13.15 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.46% · 9,278 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.62% ±8.66 1,028 openings

7 days · 84.71% ±3.16 7,721 openings

30 days · 85.46% ±2.88 9,278 openings

since tracking started · 85.46% ±2.88 9,278 openings

70.5% 79.8% 89.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/70?window=24h) | 1,028 | 79.62% ±8.66 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/70?window=7d) | 7,721 | 84.71% ±3.16 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/70) | 9,278 | 85.46% ±2.88 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/70?window=all) | 9,278 | 85.46% ±2.88 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,301 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $319 319 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 6 | 9.3 | 0.65× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $273 273 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 3 | 9.3 | 0.32× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $203 203 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 9 | 14.0 | 0.65× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $197 197 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 19 | 18.6 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $155 155 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 26 | 27.9 | 0.93× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $76.91 76.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 51 | 37.2 | 1.37× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $63.70 63.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 43 | 46.5 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $55.93 55.93 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 43 | 46.5 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $55.91 55.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 55 | 55.8 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $48.20 48.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 60 | 55.8 | 1.08× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $45.41 45.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 65 | 65.1 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $41.75 41.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 74 | 65.1 | 1.14× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $35.88 35.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 68 | 74.4 | 0.91× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $24.54 24.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 94 | 93.0 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $22.82 22.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 137 | 139.5 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $20.70 20.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 197 | 186.0 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $17.77 17.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 150 | 186.0 | 0.81× |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $16.80 16.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 186 | 186.0 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $15.49 15.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 153 | 186.0 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $14.30 14.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 295 | 279.0 | 1.06× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $13.68 13.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 304 | 279.0 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $13.02 13.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 399 | 372.0 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $12.54 12.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 384 | 372.0 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $12.04 12.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 361 | 372.0 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $11.90 11.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 350 | 372.0 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $10.97 10.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 388 | 372.0 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $9.35 9.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 351 | 372.0 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $8.89 8.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 444 | 465.0 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $8.75 8.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 567 | 544.1 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $8.63 8.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 392 | 372.0 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $7.98 7.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 364 | 372.0 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $7.19 7.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 359 | 372.0 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Attack Vector (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6.42 6.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 401 | 372.0 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $5.84 5.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 403 | 372.0 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.29 5.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 348 | 372.0 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $5.06 5.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 382 | 372.0 | 1.03× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.81 4.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 342 | 372.0 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $4.07 4.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 380 | 372.0 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $3.54 3.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 175 | 186.0 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.05 2.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 284 | 279.0 | 1.02× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.82 1.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 189 | 186.0 | 1.02× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=70)

[AUG | Carved Jade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-field-tested) [fygozerAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fygozerAA) $14.99 14.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $13.02 13.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) [eternity :v](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/eternity%20%3Av) $14.99 14.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.06 5.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[AUG | Carved Jade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-field-tested) [Danjgem](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Danjgem) $14.99 14.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $13.02 13.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) [𝓛𝓲𝓬𝓴 𝓶𝓮](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%F0%9D%93%9B%F0%9D%93%B2%F0%9D%93%AC%F0%9D%93%B4%20%F0%9D%93%B6%F0%9D%93%AE) $14.99 14.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.07 4.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) [Cocoaboaro](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cocoaboaro) $14.99 14.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.81 4.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) [Chocolate 🦄🦄](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chocolate%20%F0%9F%A6%84%F0%9F%A6%84) $14.99 14.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $41.75 41.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.79x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-field-tested) [ШАМИЛЬxКРОВОСТОК](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%A8%D0%90%D0%9C%D0%98%D0%9B%D0%ACx%D0%9A%D0%A0%D0%9E%D0%92%D0%9E%D0%A1%D0%A2%D0%9E%D0%9A) $14.99 14.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.19 7.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) [hakdog](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/hakdog) $14.99 14.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.54 12.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) [Sammy39](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sammy39) $14.99 14.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $8.89 8.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) [CuriousCoffee](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/CuriousCoffee) $14.99 14.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.06 5.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $14.99 | 87.75% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.1% #ffd700 0.1% covert 2.3% Legendary 4.3% gold 0.4% red 0.5% classified 24.4% blue 0.6% pink 10.9% mil spec 9.5% restricted 16.0% uncommon 8.0% Mythical 15.0% violet 4.0% milspec 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.75 on average: an expected loss of $12.25 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt