---
title: "Ice Zombie case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Ice Zombie ($20.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 97.99% from 41 items with odds, observed 97.41% over 9,284 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/71
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Ice Zombie](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/71)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Ice Zombie

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/71?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/71?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/71) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/71?window=all)

Price · $20.00 · 20 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 97.99% · EV $19.60 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.41% · 9,284 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.48% ±7.03 1,068 openings

7 days · 97.11% ±2.60 7,773 openings

30 days · 97.41% ±2.38 9,284 openings

since tracking started · 97.41% ±2.38 9,284 openings

85.0% 92.8% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/71?window=24h) | 1,068 | 92.48% ±7.03 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/71?window=7d) | 7,773 | 97.11% ±2.60 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/71) | 9,284 | 97.41% ±2.38 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/71?window=all) | 9,284 | 97.41% ±2.38 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,299 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $459 459 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 5 | 9.3 | 0.54× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 500 | $309 309 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 26 | 18.6 | 1.40× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $142 142 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 20 | 27.9 | 0.72× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $93.60 93.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 36 | 37.2 | 0.97× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $84.86 84.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 42 | 37.2 | 1.13× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $71.00 71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 49 | 46.5 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $69.80 69.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 53 | 55.8 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $57.13 57.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 53 | 65.1 | 0.81× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $56.68 56.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 75 | 74.4 | 1.01× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $48.02 48.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 72 | 83.7 | 0.86× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $45.32 45.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 102 | 93.0 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $32.02 32.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 89 | 93.0 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $28.50 28.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 78 | 93.0 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $25.98 25.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 97 | 93.0 | 1.04× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $24.34 24.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 162 | 139.5 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $23.77 23.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 164 | 139.5 | 1.18× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $22.68 22.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 111 | 139.5 | 0.80× |
| [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $21.71 21.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 165 | 186.0 | 0.89× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $20.99 20.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 187 | 186.0 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $20.71 20.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 191 | 186.0 | 1.03× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $20.44 20.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 198 | 186.0 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $20.35 20.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 270 | 279.0 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $20.02 20.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 379 | 372.0 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Detour (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-detour-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $19.57 19.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 387 | 372.0 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $19.16 19.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 400 | 372.0 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $18.83 18.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 461 | 464.9 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $18.14 18.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 468 | 464.9 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $17.39 17.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 469 | 464.9 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-digital-architect-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $16.98 16.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 527 | 557.9 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $14.60 14.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 475 | 464.9 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Shallow Grave (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shallow-grave-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $13.55 13.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 427 | 464.9 | 0.92× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $12.34 12.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 475 | 464.9 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $12.16 12.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 354 | 372.0 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $11.29 11.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 376 | 372.0 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $10.34 10.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 385 | 372.0 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $9.78 9.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 265 | 279.0 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $8.38 8.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 298 | 279.0 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $7.67 7.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 284 | 279.0 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $7.12 7.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 238 | 241.8 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $6.30 6.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 199 | 186.0 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $5.20 5.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 183 | 186.0 | 0.98× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=71)

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) [ake eilish](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ake%20eilish) $20.00 20 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $18.83 18.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) [DJIKッ-IX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DJIK%E3%83%83-IX) $20.00 20 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $32.02 32.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.60x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) [40kg kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/40kg%20kid) $20.00 20 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $18.14 18.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Shallow Grave (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shallow-grave-well-worn) [40kg kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/40kg%20kid) $20.00 20 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $13.55 13.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) [Serial](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Serial) $20.00 20 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.34 12.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-well-worn) [☣WOLFS☣ HETTIX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%A3WOLFS%E2%98%A3%20HETTIX) $20.00 20 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $19.16 19.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.96x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) [☣WOLFS☣ HETTIX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%A3WOLFS%E2%98%A3%20HETTIX) $20.00 20 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.34 12.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[M4A4 | Desert Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-well-worn) [☣WOLFS☣ HETTIX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%A3WOLFS%E2%98%A3%20HETTIX) $20.00 20 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.29 11.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) [Sooto](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sooto) $20.00 20 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $24.34 24.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.22x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[FAMAS | Djinn (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-battle-scarred) [40kg kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/40kg%20kid) $20.00 20 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.16 12.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $20.00 | 97.99% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 1.4% Knives 0.2% covert 3.9% gold 0.4% red 1.0% restricted 15.5% Classified 6.0% mil spec 1.5% pink 7.1% #4b69ff 2.0% Mythical 2.0% classified 39.0% Mil Spec Grade 4.0% other 4.0% Industrial Grade 5.0% industrial 4.0% uncommon 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 98.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $97.99 on average: an expected loss of $2.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt