---
title: "Doggo case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Doggo ($25.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.99% from 42 items with odds, observed 91.99% over 8,055 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/72
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Doggo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/72)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Doggo

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/72?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/72?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/72) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/72?window=all)

Price · $25.00 · 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 93.99% · EV $23.50 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.99% · 8,055 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.00% ±7.38 881 openings

7 days · 91.81% ±2.70 6,566 openings

30 days · 91.99% ±2.44 8,055 openings

since tracking started · 91.99% ±2.44 8,055 openings

81.0% 89.0% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/72?window=24h) | 881 | 89.00% ±7.38 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/72?window=7d) | 6,566 | 91.81% ±2.70 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/72) | 8,055 | 91.99% ±2.44 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/72?window=all) | 8,055 | 91.99% ±2.44 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,082 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,000 | $515 515 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 5 | 8.1 | 0.62× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $324 324 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.87× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 500 | $257 257 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 15 | 16.2 | 0.93× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 333 | $187 187 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 16 | 24.2 | 0.66× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 250 | $142 142 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 37 | 32.3 | 1.14× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 250 | $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 31 | 32.3 | 0.96× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $114 114 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 34 | 40.4 | 0.84× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $78.73 78.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 30 | 40.4 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $73.18 73.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 42 | 40.4 | 1.04× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $69.86 69.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 43 | 48.5 | 0.89× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $68.27 68.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 72 | 56.6 | 1.27× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $47.51 47.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 73 | 64.7 | 1.13× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $46.26 46.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 74 | 80.8 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $39.53 39.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 68 | 80.8 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $36.86 36.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 79 | 80.8 | 0.98× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $34.45 34.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 62 | 72.7 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $31.85 31.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 127 | 121.2 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $30.86 30.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 130 | 121.2 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $28.90 28.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 156 | 161.6 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $27.23 27.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 201 | 202.0 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Bronze (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-bronze-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $25.22 25.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 208 | 202.0 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $24.37 24.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 236 | 242.5 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $23.08 23.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 257 | 242.5 | 1.06× |
| [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $22.88 22.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 309 | 323.3 | 0.96× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $22.22 22.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 326 | 323.3 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $21.41 21.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 310 | 323.3 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $20.76 20.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 315 | 323.3 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| The End (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $20.21 20.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 462 | 404.1 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $19.60 19.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 413 | 404.1 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $18.14 18.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 397 | 404.1 | 0.98× |
| [MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-chainmail-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 373 | 404.1 | 0.92× |
| [Souvenir Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-dusk-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $15.97 15.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 392 | 363.7 | 1.08× |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $15.42 15.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 384 | 363.7 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $14.87 14.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 327 | 323.3 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $13.25 13.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 310 | 323.3 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $12.76 12.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 330 | 323.3 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $12.25 12.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 335 | 323.3 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $11.83 11.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 212 | 242.5 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $10.85 10.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 236 | 242.5 | 0.97× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Memento (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-memento-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $9.14 9.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 256 | 242.5 | 1.06× |
| [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $8.41 8.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 208 | 202.0 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $7.40 7.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 184 | 202.0 | 0.91× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Enixmy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Enixmy) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $515 515 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.59x 2026-11-09 23:07 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [aragorn](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/aragorn) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $515 515 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.59x 2026-11-07 17:53 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Airikr](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Airikr) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $515 515 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.59x 2026-11-06 21:58 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Dzain.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Dzain.) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $515 515 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.59x 2026-11-04 20:22 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Doc](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Doc) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $515 515 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.59x 2026-11-03 15:09 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=72)

[MAG-7 | Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-chainmail-factory-new) [BigBrudda](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BigBrudda) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.70x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) [BigBrudda](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BigBrudda) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.76 12.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.51x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[AWP | The End (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-minimal-wear) [Elefun](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Elefun) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.21 20.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.81x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[AWP | The End (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-minimal-wear) [I\<3KEBAB](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/I%3C3KEBAB) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.21 20.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.81x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-malachite-factory-new) [Elefun](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Elefun) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $14.87 14.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.59x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[AWP | The End (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-minimal-wear) [I\<3KEBAB](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/I%3C3KEBAB) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.21 20.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.81x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[P2000 | Woodsman (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-battle-scarred) [Conga](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Conga) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $22.22 22.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.89x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-factory-new) [Conga](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Conga) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $24.37 24.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.97x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-battle-scarred) [Malinkis](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Malinkis) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $34.45 34.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.38x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC

[AWP | The End (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-minimal-wear) [COLLAB](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/COLLAB) $25.00 25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.21 20.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.81x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $25.00 | 93.99% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #EB4B4B 0.1% covert 2.7% covert knife 1.2% classified 28.4% Immortal 0.6% extraordinary 1.0% #8847ff 2.5% mil spec 11.0% restricted 11.5% light blue 2.5% Mil Spec Grade 4.0% pink 10.5% industrial 5.0% #4b69ff 4.5% Mythical 4.0% #d32ee6 4.0% violet 4.0% Classified 2.5% best hit $515 (20.59x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.99 on average: an expected loss of $6.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt