---
title: "Snowball case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Snowball ($40.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.53% from 40 items with odds, observed 94.53% over 7,443 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/73
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Snowball](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/73)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Snowball

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/73?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/73?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/73) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/73?window=all)

Price · $40.00 · 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 92.53% · EV $37.01 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.53% · 7,443 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.53% ±7.49 834 openings

7 days · 94.37% ±2.75 6,182 openings

30 days · 94.53% ±2.51 7,443 openings

since tracking started · 94.53% ±2.51 7,443 openings

87.5% 95.5% 103.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/73?window=24h) | 834 | 95.53% ±7.49 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/73?window=7d) | 6,182 | 94.37% ±2.75 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/73) | 7,443 | 94.53% ±2.51 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/73?window=all) | 7,443 | 94.53% ±2.51 | +1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,455 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $664 664 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 12 | 11.2 | 1.07× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $413 413 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 23 | 14.9 | 1.54× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $309 309 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 22 | 22.4 | 0.98× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $273 273 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 28 | 26.1 | 1.07× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $228 228 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 41 | 29.8 | 1.37× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $153 153 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 30 | 37.3 | 0.80× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $135 135 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 45 | 44.7 | 1.01× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $124 124 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 40 | 44.7 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 50 | 44.7 | 1.12× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $119 119 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 56 | 52.2 | 1.07× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $106 106 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 54 | 59.6 | 0.91× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $80.51 80.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 58 | 59.6 | 0.97× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $66.98 66.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 88 | 74.5 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $57.72 57.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 69 | 74.5 | 0.93× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $52.57 52.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 81 | 74.5 | 1.09× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $51.13 51.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 103 | 111.8 | 0.92× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $50.96 50.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 85 | 74.5 | 1.14× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $50.46 50.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 106 | 111.8 | 0.95× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $44.32 44.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 124 | 149.1 | 0.83× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $43.82 43.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 154 | 149.1 | 1.03× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $42.77 42.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 207 | 186.4 | 1.11× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $41.34 41.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 217 | 223.6 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $39.40 39.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 215 | 223.6 | 0.96× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $37.32 37.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 307 | 298.2 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $36.50 36.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 290 | 298.2 | 0.97× |
| [XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $35.16 35.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 343 | 335.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $33.38 33.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 377 | 372.7 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $30.66 30.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 437 | 447.3 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $26.93 26.93 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 430 | 410.0 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $25.42 25.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 426 | 410.0 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $24.32 24.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 385 | 372.7 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $22.12 22.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 336 | 372.7 | 0.90× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-reactor-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $21.07 21.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 365 | 372.7 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $19.94 19.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 324 | 298.2 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $18.07 18.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 269 | 298.2 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $16.30 16.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 303 | 298.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $15.72 15.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 290 | 298.2 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $10.57 10.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 221 | 223.6 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $9.22 9.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 211 | 223.6 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $9.12 9.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 233 | 223.6 | 1.04× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [.H2Bit.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/.H2Bit.) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $664 664 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.61x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [A. Talisca](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/A.%20Talisca) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $664 664 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.61x 2026-11-10 19:29 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Elfidro](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Elfidro) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $664 664 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.61x 2026-11-09 09:17 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Kounch](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kounch) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $664 664 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.61x 2026-11-09 09:05 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [KLINTZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/KLINTZ) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $664 664 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.61x 2026-11-09 02:55 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Fydo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fydo) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $664 664 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.61x 2026-11-07 12:19 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Barre ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Barre%20%E3%83%84) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $664 664 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.61x 2026-11-06 07:49 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [LegoVar](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/LegoVar) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $664 664 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.61x 2026-11-05 18:59 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [(mp5)](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%28mp5%29) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $664 664 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.61x 2026-11-05 16:48 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Härra Rinnalihas](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/H%C3%A4rra%20Rinnalihas) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $664 664 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.61x 2026-11-05 00:29 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=73)

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) [みなせゆきな](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E3%81%BF%E3%81%AA%E3%81%9B%E3%82%86%E3%81%8D%E3%81%AA) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $25.42 25.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) [AP](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AP) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $33.38 33.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) [ImStussy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ImStussy) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $22.12 22.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-well-worn) [AntiRed](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AntiRed) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $124 124 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 3.09x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [Meow](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Meow) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $273 273 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.81x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-factory-new) [Meow](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Meow) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $30.66 30.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) [BMaximusBoss](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BMaximusBoss) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.30 16.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-factory-new) [aBoBocka](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/aBoBocka) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $30.66 30.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [aBoBocka](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/aBoBocka) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $413 413 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.33x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) [aBoBocka](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/aBoBocka) $40.00 40 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $25.42 25.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $40.00 | 92.53% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.6% covert knife 5.2% gold 3.2% uncommon 1.0% Immortal 1.0% extraordinary 3.5% #ffd700 2.0% industrial 12.0% classified 24.5% Uncommon 4.5% #d32ee6 5.0% Restricted 10.0% Legendary 5.5% #d32ce6 5.0% pink 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% best hit $664 (16.61x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.53 on average: an expected loss of $7.47 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt