---
title: "Chickenist case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Chickenist ($80.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.91% from 38 items with odds, observed 86.01% over 5,829 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/75
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Chickenist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/75)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Chickenist

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/75?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/75?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/75) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/75?window=all)

Price · $80.00 · 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 86.91% · EV $69.53 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.01% · 5,829 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.44% ±6.35 667 openings

7 days · 86.03% ±2.37 4,782 openings

30 days · 86.01% ±2.15 5,829 openings

since tracking started · 86.01% ±2.15 5,829 openings

78.5% 85.5% 92.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/75?window=24h) | 667 | 85.44% ±6.35 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/75?window=7d) | 4,782 | 86.03% ±2.37 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/75) | 5,829 | 86.01% ±2.15 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/75?window=all) | 5,829 | 86.01% ±2.15 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,838 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,007 1,007 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $606 606 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 10 | 11.7 | 0.86× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $526 526 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 19 | 17.5 | 1.08× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $519 519 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 20 | 23.4 | 0.86× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $290 290 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 37 | 29.2 | 1.27× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $249 249 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 30 | 29.2 | 1.03× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $224 224 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 37 | 35.0 | 1.06× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $183 183 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 37 | 40.9 | 0.91× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $159 159 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 39 | 46.7 | 0.84× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $137 137 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 54 | 52.5 | 1.03× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $126 126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 53 | 58.4 | 0.91× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $123 123 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 58 | 58.4 | 0.99× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 54 | 58.4 | 0.92× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $116 116 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 71 | 64.2 | 1.11× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $109 109 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 68 | 64.2 | 1.06× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 63 | 64.2 | 0.98× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $103 103 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 57 | 75.9 | 0.75× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $95.29 95.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 95 | 110.9 | 0.86× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $92.62 92.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 132 | 145.9 | 0.90× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $89.90 89.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 169 | 175.1 | 0.96× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $84.53 84.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 164 | 175.1 | 0.94× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $83.04 83.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 167 | 175.1 | 0.95× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $80.92 80.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 283 | 262.7 | 1.08× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $79.52 79.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.7% | 285 | 291.9 | 0.98× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $77.08 77.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.7% | 370 | 350.3 | 1.06× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $64.43 64.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.6% | 359 | 350.3 | 1.02× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $55.06 55.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.5% | 392 | 408.7 | 0.96× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $49.51 49.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 363 | 350.3 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $38.98 38.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 350 | 321.1 | 1.09× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $37.02 37.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 330 | 321.1 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $35.09 35.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 273 | 291.9 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $34.73 34.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 310 | 291.9 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $32.50 32.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 256 | 262.7 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $27.30 27.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 250 | 233.5 | 1.07× |
| [SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $23.68 23.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 175 | 175.1 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $22.86 22.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 182 | 175.1 | 1.04× |
| [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $20.80 20.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 103 | 116.8 | 0.88× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $17.69 17.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 118 | 116.8 | 1.01× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [FABIO\_\_VIVAS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FABIO__VIVAS) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,007 1,007 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 12.59x 2026-11-10 05:23 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [Pipister](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Pipister) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,007 1,007 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 12.59x 2026-11-09 05:52 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [💋 Game⚠️TeC](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%F0%9F%92%8B%20Game%E2%9A%A0%EF%B8%8FTeC) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,007 1,007 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 12.59x 2026-11-08 17:40 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [ben!](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ben!) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,007 1,007 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 12.59x 2026-11-05 18:22 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [Mute](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Mute) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,007 1,007 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 12.59x 2026-11-05 17:19 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [DJ Kuroto](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DJ%20Kuroto) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $606 606 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.57x 2026-11-11 04:25 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [Hammercock Merle](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Hammercock%20Merle) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $606 606 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.57x 2026-11-10 02:43 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [E\_WM](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/E_WM) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $606 606 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.57x 2026-11-09 05:35 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [mdc.1994](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/mdc.1994) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $606 606 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.57x 2026-11-09 04:55 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [Gr3N](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gr3N) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $606 606 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.57x 2026-11-08 04:03 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=75)

[CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-factory-new) [Pazoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Pazoo) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.69 17.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.22x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) [Gandhi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gandhi) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $77.08 77.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.96x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) [Леонид Автосервиc](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B4%20%D0%90%D0%B2%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B2%D0%B8c) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $27.30 27.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.34x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-field-tested) [Леонид Автосервиc](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B4%20%D0%90%D0%B2%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B2%D0%B8c) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $55.06 55.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.69x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) [Athen](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Athen) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $80.92 80.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.01x 2026-11-11 19:01 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [lecccymydurrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/lecccymydurrrr) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $64.43 64.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.81x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-battle-scarred) [FoXeR](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FoXeR) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $49.51 49.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) [Amazing Yoda Master](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Amazing%20Yoda%20Master) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $27.30 27.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.34x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC

[SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-minimal-wear) [chupapi munyayo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/chupapi%20munyayo) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $23.68 23.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.30x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-factory-new) [lecccymydurrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/lecccymydurrrr) $80.00 80 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.69 17.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $80.00 | 86.91% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 18.9% gold 2.5% covert 28.4% #ffd700 13.9% Covert 1.0% Immortal 1.3% classified 14.5% industrial 8.0% Legendary 4.5% #4b69ff 3.0% blue 2.0% #8847ff 2.0% best hit $1,007 (12.59x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.91 on average: an expected loss of $13.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt