---
title: "Lola case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lola ($15.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 99.39% from 41 items with odds, observed 97.35% over 9,528 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/79
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Lola](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/79)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Lola

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/79?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/79?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/79) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/79?window=all)

Price · $15.00 · 15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 99.39% · EV $14.91 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.35% · 9,528 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.40% ±7.09 1,103 openings

7 days · 97.27% ±2.65 7,919 openings

30 days · 97.35% ±2.41 9,528 openings

since tracking started · 97.35% ±2.41 9,528 openings

87.5% 95.3% 103.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/79?window=24h) | 1,103 | 95.40% ±7.09 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/79?window=7d) | 7,919 | 97.27% ±2.65 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/79) | 9,528 | 97.35% ±2.41 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/79?window=all) | 9,528 | 97.35% ±2.41 | −1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,559 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $228 228 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 13 | 9.6 | 1.36× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $218 218 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 16 | 14.3 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $173 173 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 15 | 19.1 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $155 155 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 21 | 28.7 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-fully-tuned-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 31 | 38.2 | 0.81× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $63.19 63.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 44 | 47.8 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $51.88 51.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 60 | 57.4 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-fully-tuned-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $46.39 46.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 45 | 57.4 | 0.78× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $43.01 43.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 63 | 66.9 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $39.78 39.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 64 | 76.5 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $32.51 32.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 82 | 86.0 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $25.88 25.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 102 | 95.6 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $24.97 24.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 90 | 95.6 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $23.40 23.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 79 | 95.6 | 0.83× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $21.24 21.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 127 | 119.5 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-titanium-bit-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $20.38 20.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 164 | 143.4 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $19.03 19.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 138 | 143.4 | 0.96× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $19.02 19.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 150 | 143.4 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Mint Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $18.26 18.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 210 | 191.2 | 1.10× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $17.67 17.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 180 | 191.2 | 0.94× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $16.20 16.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 241 | 239.0 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $15.73 15.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 264 | 286.8 | 0.92× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $15.34 15.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 304 | 286.8 | 1.06× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $14.81 14.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 370 | 382.4 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $13.42 13.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 379 | 382.4 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $13.14 13.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 443 | 430.2 | 1.03× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 439 | 477.9 | 0.92× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-rameses-reach-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $12.68 12.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 471 | 477.9 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $12.56 12.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 491 | 477.9 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $11.22 11.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 477 | 477.9 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $10.21 10.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 440 | 477.9 | 0.92× |
| [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $9.60 9.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 566 | 573.5 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Contamination (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $8.22 8.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 494 | 477.9 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $8.16 8.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 419 | 382.4 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-grinder-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $7.72 7.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 392 | 382.4 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $7.14 7.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 367 | 382.4 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $6.02 6.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 275 | 286.8 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $5.75 5.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 329 | 286.8 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $5.74 5.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 295 | 286.8 | 1.03× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $5.54 5.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 212 | 191.2 | 1.11× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $4.08 4.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 197 | 191.2 | 1.03× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=79)

[MP9 | Airlock (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-well-worn) [Lion](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Lion) $15.00 15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $13.42 13.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.89x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) [Lion](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Lion) $15.00 15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $155 155 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.34x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-factory-new) [Amp banditcamp.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Amp%20banditcamp.com) $15.00 15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.74 5.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.38x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) [ExT. Ski](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ExT.%20Ski) $15.00 15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $15.73 15.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.05x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) [Amp banditcamp.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Amp%20banditcamp.com) $15.00 15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.54 5.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) [ExT. Ski](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ExT.%20Ski) $15.00 15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $8.16 8.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.54x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) [Angelina Sirius](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Angelina%20Sirius) $15.00 15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.86x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[MAC-10 | Tatter (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-factory-new) [ᴮᵉᵃʳ³⁰ᶠᵖˢ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E1%B4%AE%E1%B5%89%E1%B5%83%CA%B3%C2%B3%E2%81%B0%E1%B6%A0%E1%B5%96%CB%A2) $15.00 15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.60 9.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.64x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) [Borzik](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Borzik) $15.00 15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.22 11.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.75x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) [Fixreen™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fixreen%E2%84%A2) $15.00 15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.90 12.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.86x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $15.00 | 99.39% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 14.9% covert 0.7% #eb4b4b 0.2% rare 1.0% red 0.6% Ancient 0.7% industrial 8.8% #d32ee6 3.9% restricted 25.5% violet 7.0% Restricted 8.8% #8847FF 1.5% consumer 2.0% Mythical 13.5% milspec 5.0% pink 6.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 99.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $99.39 on average: an expected loss of $0.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt