---
title: "Ragnar case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ragnar ($9.50) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 96.36% from 42 items with odds, observed 93.46% over 12.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/88
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Ragnar](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/88)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Ragnar

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/88?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/88?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/88) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/88?window=all)

Price · $9.50 · 9.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 96.36% · EV $9.15 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.46% · 12.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.28% ±7.46 1,451 openings

7 days · 94.14% ±2.81 10.3K openings

30 days · 93.46% ±2.56 12.4K openings

since tracking started · 93.46% ±2.56 12.4K openings

86.0% 94.2% 102.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 96.37% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.91% – 96.02%, 12,417 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/88?window=24h) | 1,451 | 94.28% ±7.46 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/88?window=7d) | 10.3K | 94.14% ±2.81 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/88) | 12.4K | 93.46% ±2.56 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/88?window=all) | 12.4K | 93.46% ±2.56 | −2.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $204 204 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 13 | 12.4 | 1.05× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $183 183 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 8 | 18.7 | 0.43× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $147 147 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 10 | 24.9 | 0.40× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $94.99 94.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 6 | 31.1 | 0.19× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $76.55 76.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 22 | 37.3 | 0.59× |
| [★ Paracord Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife) | 1 in 250 | $55.92 55.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 43 | 49.8 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $40.33 40.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 58 | 62.2 | 0.93× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $33.43 33.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 55 | 62.2 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $32.02 32.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 63 | 74.6 | 0.84× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $31.28 31.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 59 | 74.6 | 0.79× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $21.86 21.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 94 | 87.1 | 1.08× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $17.80 17.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 93 | 99.5 | 0.93× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $16.46 16.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 105 | 112.0 | 0.94× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $15.37 15.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 117 | 124.4 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $14.39 14.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 109 | 124.4 | 0.88× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $13.48 13.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 131 | 124.4 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $12.53 12.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 133 | 124.4 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-mirror-mosaic-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $11.87 11.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 126 | 124.4 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $11.05 11.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 98 | 124.4 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-syd-mead-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $10.85 10.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 255 | 248.8 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $10.28 10.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 260 | 248.8 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $10.09 10.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 269 | 248.8 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $9.86 9.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 249 | 248.8 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Heavy](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $9.62 9.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 380 | 373.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $9.42 9.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 363 | 373.2 | 0.97× |
| [MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $9.32 9.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 477 | 497.6 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $8.76 8.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 502 | 497.6 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $7.63 7.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 490 | 497.6 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $7.16 7.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 514 | 497.6 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $7.03 7.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 550 | 559.8 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-heaven-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $6.56 6.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 770 | 746.4 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $6.48 6.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 819 | 746.4 | 1.10× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $6.02 6.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 705 | 746.4 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $5.87 5.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 679 | 684.2 | 0.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| Sonar (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sonar-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.57 5.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 631 | 622.0 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 643 | 622.0 | 1.03× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.13 4.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 486 | 497.6 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.97 3.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 510 | 497.6 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $3.81 3.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 381 | 373.2 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3.08 3.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 375 | 373.2 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.01 3.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 379 | 373.2 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.40 2.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 364 | 373.2 | 0.98× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=88)

[MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-minimal-wear) [Dean](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Dean) $9.50 9.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.32 9.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.98x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) [Dean](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Dean) $9.50 9.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $8.76 8.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.92x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Heavy](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-minimal-wear) [flzz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/flzz) $9.50 9.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.62 9.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.01x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-heaven-guard-field-tested) [Shrikel](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Shrikel) $9.50 9.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.56 6.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.69x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-battle-scarred) [frökəl](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fr%C3%B6k%C9%99l) $9.50 9.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.28 10.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.08x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-neo-noir-well-worn) [frökəl](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fr%C3%B6k%C9%99l) $9.50 9.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.42 9.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.99x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-heaven-guard-field-tested) [allDumbChoices](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/allDumbChoices) $9.50 9.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.56 6.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.69x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-battle-scarred) [pepe](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/pepe) $9.50 9.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.48 6.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.68x 2026-11-11 17:04 UTC

[MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-minimal-wear) [STRIJ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/STRIJ) $9.50 9.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.32 9.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.98x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

[MAC-10 | Carnivore (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-factory-new) [f q](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/f%20q) $9.50 9.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.08 3.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 16:33 UTC | $9.50 | 96.36% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $9.50 | 96.38% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.7% covert knife 0.2% sunny 0.3% Immortal 0.3% classified 22.3% pink 7.5% restricted 15.1% Classified 0.6% mil spec 0.7% #d32ee6 0.9% Mil Spec Grade 4.0% Restricted 11.5% Legendary 1.0% #D32CE6 2.0% Heavy 3.0% #d32ce6 3.0% Mythical 4.0% consumer 4.0% violet 6.0% Rare 5.0% uncommon 5.0% milspec 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 96.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $96.36 on average: an expected loss of $3.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt