---
title: "Chickenasiimov case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Chickenasiimov ($1.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 102.70% from 38 items with odds, observed 98.52% over 43.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/90
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Chickenasiimov](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/90)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Chickenasiimov

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/90?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/90?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/90) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/90?window=all)

Price · $1.00 · 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 102.70% · EV $1.03 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.52% · 43.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 13.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.56% ±10.11 5,109 openings

7 days · 98.15% ±3.81 36.1K openings

30 days · 98.52% ±3.48 43.1K openings

since tracking started · 98.52% ±3.48 43.1K openings

85.0% 95.8% 106.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 102.69% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (95.05% – 102.00%, 43,148 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/90?window=24h) | 5,109 | 95.56% ±10.1 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/90?window=7d) | 36.1K | 98.15% ±3.81 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/90) | 43.1K | 98.52% ±3.48 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/90?window=all) | 43.1K | 98.52% ±3.48 | −2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.6% | 18 | 21.6 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $72.57 72.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 7.1% | 39 | 43.3 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $31.53 31.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 52 | 64.9 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $9.91 9.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 70 | 86.5 | 0.81× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $7.18 7.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 114 | 129.8 | 0.88× |
| [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $4.15 4.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 139 | 173.0 | 0.80× |
| [FAMAS \| Macabre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $3.82 3.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 187 | 216.3 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Memorial (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-memorial-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $3.18 3.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 232 | 259.5 | 0.89× |
| [SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $2.63 2.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 266 | 302.8 | 0.88× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $2.29 2.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 309 | 346.1 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $1.75 1.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 378 | 389.3 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1.68 1.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 433 | 432.6 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Dart (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $1.50 1.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 448 | 475.8 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $1.46 1.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 555 | 519.1 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $1.37 1.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 616 | 648.9 | 0.95× |
| [M249 \| Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $1.31 1.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 655 | 648.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $1.22 1.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 635 | 648.9 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.18 1.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 876 | 865.2 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.14 1.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 864 | 865.2 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Slashed (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-slashed-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1.04 1.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 865 | 865.2 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Vandal (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.03 1.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 1,297 | 1297.7 | 1.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.01 1.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 1,820 | 1730.3 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.97 0.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 1,710 | 1730.3 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Slipstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.90 0.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 1,700 | 1730.3 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.86 0.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 2,185 | 2162.9 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.84 0.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 2,487 | 2379.2 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.74 0.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 2,571 | 2595.5 | 0.99× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.68 0.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 2,199 | 2595.5 | 0.85× |
| [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.62 0.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 400 | 2595.5 | 0.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.61 0.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 2,439 | 2162.9 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Memorial (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-memorial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.59 0.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 1,793 | 2162.9 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.51 0.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 2,221 | 2162.9 | 1.03× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.49 0.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 1,949 | 1946.6 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.44 0.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 2,107 | 1946.6 | 1.08× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.37 0.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 1,721 | 1730.3 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Astrolabe (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-astrolabe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.28 0.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 1,783 | 1730.3 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.23 0.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 1,327 | 1297.7 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.22 0.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 1,288 | 1297.7 | 0.99× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [rsjon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/rsjon) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 115.0x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [Marcus Giovannis](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Marcus%20Giovannis) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 115.0x 2026-11-10 05:00 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [пiдбитый шушпiнчик (пудж)](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%BFi%D0%B4%D0%B1%D0%B8%D1%82%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D1%88%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BFi%D0%BD%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%BA%20%28%D0%BF%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B6%29) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 115.0x 2026-11-09 18:40 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [I am the Capitan now!TRADEIT.GG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/I%20am%20the%20Capitan%20now!TRADEIT.GG) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 115.0x 2026-11-09 16:41 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [Micael](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Micael) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 115.0x 2026-11-09 15:53 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [General Milk Tooth](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/General%20Milk%20Tooth) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 115.0x 2026-11-09 03:55 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [IT'S VLAD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/IT'S%20VLAD) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 115.0x 2026-11-09 00:18 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [Aeolus～夢吐](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Aeolus%EF%BD%9E%E5%A4%A2%E5%90%90) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 115.0x 2026-11-08 23:51 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [Reservegud](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Reservegud) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 115.0x 2026-11-08 10:00 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [Seramaw](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Seramaw) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 115.0x 2026-11-07 22:27 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=90)

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Slipstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-slipstream-minimal-wear) [broment](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/broment) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.90 0.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [fonky monky](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fonky%20monky) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.62 0.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Slipstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-slipstream-minimal-wear) [Ethiamach1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ethiamach1) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.90 0.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-well-worn) [Ethiamach1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ethiamach1) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.86 0.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Cirrus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-field-tested) [blandi#rustysaloon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/blandi%23rustysaloon) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.18 1.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.18x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) [Ðēåđ\_şĥøŧ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C3%90%C4%93%C3%A5%C4%91_%C5%9F%C4%A5%C3%B8%C5%A7%E2%84%A2) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.74 0.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.74x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [Incredible](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Incredible) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.62 0.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [Cleo Castaway Cobb](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cleo%20Castaway%20Cobb) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.62 0.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[SSG 08 | Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) [♥Kanvo1d♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%99%A5Kanvo1d%E2%99%A5) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.49 0.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) [AlokinSkyLord123](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AlokinSkyLord123) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.03 1.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $1.00 | 102.70% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $1.00 | 102.68% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.00 | 102.72% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 4.0% covert 0.3% Legendary 0.2% pink 0.3% #4b69ff 20.7% mil spec 17.0% #8847ff 1.7% restricted 2.2% Mil Spec Grade 5.1% milspec 15.0% Industrial Grade 1.5% blue 4.5% Rare 6.5% Mythical 7.0% gray 4.0% violet 6.0% industrial 4.0% best hit $115 (115.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 102.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $102.70 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt