---
title: "Mission the Detectivo case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Mission the Detectivo ($16.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.68% from 41 items with odds, observed 85.37% over 9,845 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/91
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Mission the Detectivo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/91)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Mission the Detectivo

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Operation «‎HOTPIZZA»‎), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/91?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/91?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/91) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/91?window=all)

Price · $16.00 · 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 90.68% · EV $14.51 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.37% · 9,845 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.83% ±11.50 1,246 openings

7 days · 85.58% ±4.52 8,056 openings

30 days · 85.37% ±4.09 9,845 openings

since tracking started · 85.37% ±4.09 9,845 openings

71.5% 83.7% 96.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.68% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.28% – 89.46%, 9,845 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/91?window=24h) | 1,246 | 83.83% ±11.5 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/91?window=7d) | 8,056 | 85.58% ±4.52 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/91) | 9,845 | 85.37% ±4.09 | −2.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/91?window=all) | 9,845 | 85.37% ±4.09 | −2.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,858 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $860 860 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.9% | 3 | 9.9 | 0.30× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $361 361 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 15 | 14.8 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $195 195 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 16 | 24.6 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 35 | 29.6 | 1.18× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $80.83 80.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 37 | 29.6 | 1.25× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $60.22 60.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 41 | 49.3 | 0.83× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Pyre (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $50.44 50.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 54 | 59.1 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $43.56 43.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 65 | 78.9 | 0.82× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $40.07 40.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 84 | 98.6 | 0.85× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $37.12 37.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 91 | 98.6 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $32.15 32.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 91 | 98.6 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $27.78 27.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 85 | 98.6 | 0.86× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $24.98 24.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 101 | 98.6 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $23.44 23.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 89 | 98.6 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $20.06 20.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 93 | 98.6 | 0.94× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $19.75 19.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 191 | 197.2 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $17.10 17.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 394 | 394.3 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $16.40 16.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 383 | 394.3 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $15.16 15.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 412 | 394.3 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Pyre (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $13.81 13.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 471 | 492.9 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $13.50 13.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.6% | 624 | 591.5 | 1.05× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $12.62 12.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 540 | 492.9 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $11.53 11.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 418 | 394.3 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-mirror-mosaic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $10.31 10.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 418 | 394.3 | 1.06× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $9.83 9.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 399 | 394.3 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $9.72 9.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 373 | 394.3 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $9.17 9.17 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 376 | 394.3 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $8.58 8.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 413 | 394.3 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $8.35 8.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 301 | 295.7 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $8.28 8.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 299 | 295.7 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $7.84 7.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 259 | 295.7 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $7.49 7.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 295 | 295.7 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $6.04 6.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 310 | 295.7 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Hive (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $5.87 5.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 296 | 295.7 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5.41 5.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 303 | 295.7 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-urban-shock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $5.33 5.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 315 | 295.7 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $5.14 5.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 290 | 295.7 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $4.73 4.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 311 | 295.7 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.40 4.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 182 | 197.2 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4.00 4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 213 | 197.2 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $3.76 3.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 172 | 197.2 | 0.87× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) [delmar.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/delmar.) $16.00 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $860 860 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 53.77x 2026-11-05 22:18 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) [Miss Silversun](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Miss%20Silversun) $16.00 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $860 860 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 53.77x 2026-11-05 14:39 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) [SchizophrenicOrange](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/SchizophrenicOrange) $16.00 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $860 860 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 53.77x 2026-11-04 13:47 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=91)

[Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-well-worn) [-Schmidtii](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/-Schmidtii) $16.00 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.10 17.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.07x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[P250 | Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) [! Sparse](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/!%20Sparse) $16.00 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.73 4.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.30x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Pyre (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-minimal-wear) [Kibuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kibuk) $16.00 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $13.81 13.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.86x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) [Kibuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kibuk) $16.00 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $13.50 13.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.84x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Night (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-well-worn) [Kibuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kibuk) $16.00 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.53 11.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.72x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) [Kibuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kibuk) $16.00 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.83 9.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.61x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-well-worn) [Kibuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kibuk) $16.00 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.10 17.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.07x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) [Kibuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kibuk) $16.00 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $8.35 8.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.52x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) [Kibuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kibuk) $16.00 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.04 6.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.38x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Pyre (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-factory-new) [Kibuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kibuk) $16.00 16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $50.44 50.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 3.15x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $16.00 | 90.68% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 19.4% covert 0.1% Classified 0.3% classified 34.8% industrial 4.6% mil spec 2.8% violet 1.0% milspec 7.0% red 1.0% Industrial Grade 4.0% #87c7ff 5.0% blue 4.0% Mythical 4.0% Rare 3.0% Mil Spec Grade 3.0% consumer 3.0% pink 3.0% best hit $860 (53.77x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.68 on average: an expected loss of $9.32 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt