---
title: "Mission the Hunter case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Mission the Hunter ($50.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.08% from 38 items with odds, observed 81.88% over 6,924 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/93
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Mission the Hunter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/93)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Mission the Hunter

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Operation «‎HOTPIZZA»‎), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/93?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/93?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/93) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/93?window=all)

Price · $50.00 · 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 84.08% · EV $42.04 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.88% · 6,924 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.93% ±7.56 814 openings

7 days · 82.65% ±2.85 5,714 openings

30 days · 81.88% ±2.59 6,924 openings

since tracking started · 81.88% ±2.59 6,924 openings

77.5% 85.8% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/93?window=24h) | 814 | 85.93% ±7.56 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/93?window=7d) | 5,714 | 82.65% ±2.85 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/93) | 6,924 | 81.88% ±2.59 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/93?window=all) | 6,924 | 81.88% ±2.59 | −1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,935 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $839 839 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 13 | 10.4 | 1.25× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $504 504 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 8 | 13.9 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $365 365 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 11 | 17.3 | 0.63× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $327 327 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 16 | 20.8 | 0.77× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $300 300 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 24 | 27.7 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $208 208 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 26 | 27.7 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $164 164 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 35 | 34.7 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $161 161 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 22 | 34.7 | 0.63× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $148 148 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 43 | 41.6 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $145 145 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 45 | 41.6 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $135 135 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 41 | 41.6 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 62 | 69.3 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 61 | 69.3 | 0.88× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $101 101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 65 | 69.3 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $73.79 73.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 69 | 69.3 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $62.36 62.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 74 | 69.3 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $56.84 56.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 145 | 138.7 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $55.61 55.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 128 | 138.7 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $51.40 51.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 215 | 208.0 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $44.65 44.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 261 | 277.4 | 0.94× |
| [Souvenir FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-styx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $41.72 41.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 310 | 277.4 | 1.12× |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $40.07 40.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 293 | 277.4 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $37.44 37.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 277 | 277.4 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $36.10 36.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 342 | 346.7 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $32.53 32.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 371 | 346.7 | 1.07× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $31.64 31.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 343 | 346.7 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $29.92 29.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 362 | 346.7 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $27.68 27.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 323 | 346.7 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $26.90 26.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 391 | 381.4 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $24.92 24.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 401 | 416.1 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $22.87 22.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 416 | 416.1 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $21.25 21.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 369 | 346.7 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Parallax (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-parallax-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $20.85 20.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 282 | 277.4 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $20.58 20.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 343 | 346.7 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Wings (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-wings-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $19.00 19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 200 | 208.0 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $14.16 14.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 213 | 208.0 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $7.29 7.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 205 | 208.0 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $6.26 6.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 130 | 138.7 | 0.94× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [Noppel](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Noppel) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $839 839 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.77x 2026-11-11 08:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [Ceranity](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ceranity) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $839 839 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.77x 2026-11-07 15:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [Hidek1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Hidek1) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $839 839 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.77x 2026-11-07 10:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [Gocage](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gocage) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $839 839 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.77x 2026-11-06 23:37 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [C⁧⁧K](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/C%E2%81%A7%E2%81%A7K) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $839 839 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.77x 2026-11-06 21:17 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [Scoosh](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Scoosh) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $839 839 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.77x 2026-11-06 20:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [Ishnrgas](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ishnrgas) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $839 839 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.77x 2026-11-06 03:17 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [Enoste](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Enoste) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $839 839 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.77x 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [ba7ista](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ba7ista) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $839 839 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.77x 2026-11-06 02:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [BinarySoldier](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BinarySoldier) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $839 839 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.77x 2026-11-05 14:47 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=93)

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) [Dont get all quordy on me](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Dont%20get%20all%20quordy%20on%20me) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $27.68 27.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.55x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) [☂Zero☂](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%82Zero%E2%98%82) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $32.53 32.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.65x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-parallax-factory-new) [reazoNN](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/reazoNN) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.85 20.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.42x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) [AmaterkA\_ \<3 GLaDOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AmaterkA_%20%3C3%20GLaDOS) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $22.87 22.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.46x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-well-worn) [AmaterkA\_ \<3 GLaDOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AmaterkA_%20%3C3%20GLaDOS) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $56.84 56.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.14x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) [AmaterkA\_ \<3 GLaDOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AmaterkA_%20%3C3%20GLaDOS) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $22.87 22.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.46x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-parallax-factory-new) [AmaterkA\_ \<3 GLaDOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AmaterkA_%20%3C3%20GLaDOS) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.85 20.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.42x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) [Hard Out Here |](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Hard%20Out%20Here%20%7C) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $22.87 22.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.46x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) [KovalOne](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/KovalOne) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $14.16 14.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.28x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) [0=NO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/0%3DNO) $50.00 50 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $51.40 51.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.03x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $50.00 | 84.08% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $50.00 | 84.10% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 13.9% legendary 0.3% Ancient 5.7% red 0.5% Legendary 5.6% classified 26.1% Covert 2.0% #8847FF 4.0% restricted 19.0% rare 5.0% Classified 5.0% Restricted 10.0% milspec 3.0% best hit $839 (16.77x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.08 on average: an expected loss of $15.92 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt