--- title: "Budget Baller case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Budget Baller ($11.37) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.34% from 8 items with odds, observed 63.84% over 441 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/10 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Budget Baller](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/10) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Budget Baller A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/10?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/10?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/10) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/10?window=all) Price · $11.37 · 17.91 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.34% · EV $9.93 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 63.84% · 441 openings, odds method Variance · 10.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 38 openings · below min 7 days · 60.72% ±31.91 387 openings 30 days · 63.84% ±29.89 441 openings since tracking started · 63.84% ±29.89 441 openings -0.5% 67.0% 134.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/10?window=24h) | 38 | 31.97% ±101.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/10?window=7d) | 387 | 60.72% ±31.9 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/10) | 441 | 63.84% ±29.9 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/10?window=all) | 441 | 63.84% ±29.9 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 441 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $278 437 HUNT\_COIN | 28.0% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $172 271 HUNT\_COIN | 26.0% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $76.11 120 HUNT\_COIN | 19.2% | 8 | 11.0 | 0.73× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $33.26 52.39 HUNT\_COIN | 16.7% | 20 | 22.1 | 0.91× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $11.82 18.61 HUNT\_COIN | 8.9% | 33 | 33.1 | 1.00× | | [Souvenir P90 \| Scorched (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-scorched-field-tested) | 22.5% | $0.15 0.24 HUNT\_COIN | 0.3% | 85 | 99.2 | 0.86× | | [Nova \| Caged Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.15 0.24 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 129 | 132.3 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-well-worn) | 30.0% | $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN | 0.4% | 158 | 132.3 | 1.19× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=10) [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-well-worn) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $11.37 17.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-well-worn) Hidden $11.37 17.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $11.37 17.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.24 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $11.37 17.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.24 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-well-worn) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $11.37 17.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-well-worn) Hidden $11.37 17.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-well-worn) Hidden $11.37 17.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC [Nova | Caged Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-field-tested) Hidden $11.37 17.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.24 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC [Nova | Caged Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-field-tested) Hidden $11.37 17.91 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.24 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $11.37 17.91 HUNT\_COIN $33.26 52.39 HUNT\_COIN 2.93x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.37 | 87.34% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.0% gold 1.5% restricted 2.5% red 7.5% Common 22.5% industrial 30.0% #5e98d9 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.34 on average: an expected loss of $12.66 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt