--- title: "AK or AFK case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "AK or AFK ($196.40) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 119.35% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/105 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [AK or AFK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/105) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · AK or AFK A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/105?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/105?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/105) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/105?window=all) Price · $196.40 · 309 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.00% · EV $170.87 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 119.35% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min 10.5% 119.2% 228.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/105?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/105?window=7d) | 4 | 119.35% ±108.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/105) | 4 | 119.35% ±108.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/105?window=all) | 4 | 119.35% ±108.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $555 875 HUNT\_COIN | 32.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 10.0% | $480 755 HUNT\_COIN | 28.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 10.0% | $445 701 HUNT\_COIN | 26.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 10.0% | $155 245 HUNT\_COIN | 9.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $29.23 46.03 HUNT\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 10.0% | $12.08 19.03 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $10.97 17.27 HUNT\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $10.83 17.06 HUNT\_COIN | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $7.98 12.57 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 10.0% | $2.10 3.31 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=105) [AK-47 | X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) Hidden $196 309 HUNT\_COIN $445 701 HUNT\_COIN 2.27x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) Hidden $196 309 HUNT\_COIN $10.83 17.06 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) Hidden $196 309 HUNT\_COIN $480 755 HUNT\_COIN 2.44x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $196 309 HUNT\_COIN $2.10 3.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $196 | 87.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 40.0% #eb4b4b 10.0% restricted 10.0% classified 10.0% uncommon 10.0% mil spec 10.0% Classified 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.00 on average: an expected loss of $13.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt