--- title: "5% Nightmare case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Nightmare ($527.51) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.73% over 24 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/1054 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% Nightmare](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/1054) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% Nightmare A case on Hunt.gg, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/1054?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/1054?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/1054) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/1054?window=all) Price · $527.51 · 831 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.73% · 24 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 24 openings · below min since tracking started · 24 openings · below min -0.5% 87.8% 176.0% **Small sample.** 24 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/1054?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/1054?window=7d) | 24 | 84.73% ±90.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/1054) | 24 | 84.73% ±90.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/1054?window=all) | 24 | 84.73% ±90.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Hunt.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $5,401 8,507 HUNT\_COIN 10.24x 2026-11-05 20:29 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) [DameTime](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DameTime) $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $2,708 4,265 HUNT\_COIN 5.13x 2026-11-05 20:29 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) Hidden $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $761 1,199 HUNT\_COIN 1.44x 2026-11-05 20:22 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) Hidden $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $761 1,199 HUNT\_COIN 1.44x 2026-11-05 01:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=1054) [USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $90.29 142 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $90.29 142 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $90.29 142 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $90.29 142 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $90.29 142 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) [DameTime](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DameTime) $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $19.26 30.34 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $19.26 30.34 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 20:29 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $5,401 8,507 HUNT\_COIN 10.24x 2026-11-05 20:29 UTC [USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $90.29 142 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-05 20:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $528 831 HUNT\_COIN $19.26 30.34 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 20:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $5,401 (10.24x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.73 on average: an expected loss of $15.27 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt