--- title: "20% Budget case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "20% Budget ($3.65) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.44% from 16 items with odds, observed 82.99% over 841 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/117 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [20% Budget](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/117) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 20% Budget A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/117?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/117?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/117) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/117?window=all) Price · $3.65 · 5.75 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.44% · EV $3.16 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.99% · 841 openings, odds method Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 53 openings · below min 7 days · 86.53% ±16.49 703 openings 30 days · 82.99% ±15.07 841 openings since tracking started · 82.99% ±15.07 841 openings 33.0% 93.8% 154.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/117?window=24h) | 53 | 93.84% ±60.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/117?window=7d) | 703 | 86.53% ±16.5 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/117) | 841 | 82.99% ±15.1 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/117?window=all) | 841 | 82.99% ±15.1 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 841 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $193 304 HUNT\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $164 258 HUNT\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $111 175 HUNT\_COIN | 2.1% | 3 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $54.72 86.19 HUNT\_COIN | 1.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $41.39 65.19 HUNT\_COIN | 3.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $37.23 58.63 HUNT\_COIN | 6.5% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $33.26 52.39 HUNT\_COIN | 10.5% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $19.03 29.98 HUNT\_COIN | 12.1% | 11 | 16.8 | 0.65× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $15.37 24.21 HUNT\_COIN | 14.6% | 30 | 25.2 | 1.19× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $14.50 22.84 HUNT\_COIN | 13.8% | 23 | 25.2 | 0.91× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $11.82 18.61 HUNT\_COIN | 18.7% | 32 | 42.1 | 0.76× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.33 13.12 HUNT\_COIN | 13.2% | 47 | 42.1 | 1.12× | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9) | 15.0% | $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 113 | 126.1 | 0.90× | | [Sticker \| hades (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-glitter) | 15.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN | 0.3% | 127 | 126.1 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) | 25.0% | $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN | 0.4% | 219 | 210.3 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 225 | 210.3 | 1.07× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=117) [Sticker | Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) [LEZAS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/LEZAS) $3.65 5.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $3.65 5.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | hades (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-glitter) Hidden $3.65 5.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $3.65 5.75 HUNT\_COIN $33.26 52.39 HUNT\_COIN 9.11x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) Hidden $3.65 5.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | hades (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-glitter) Hidden $3.65 5.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | Cloud9 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9) Hidden $3.65 5.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.65 5.75 HUNT\_COIN $15.37 24.21 HUNT\_COIN 4.21x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [Sticker | Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) Hidden $3.65 5.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $3.65 5.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.65 | 86.44% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.3% epic 0.0% industrial 0.1% Legendary 0.1% covert 4.5% #8847FF 2.0% restricted 3.0% red 5.0% mil spec 5.0% other 55.0% high 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.44 on average: an expected loss of $13.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt