--- title: "10% AWP case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% AWP ($19.91) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 15 items with odds, observed 90.62% over 1,625 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/121 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% AWP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/121) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% AWP A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/121?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/121?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/121) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/121?window=all) Price · $19.91 · 31.36 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $17.92 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.62% · 1,625 openings, odds method Variance · 10.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 47.23% ±53.58 134 openings 7 days · 90.63% ±16.39 1,432 openings 30 days · 90.62% ±15.39 1,625 openings since tracking started · 90.62% ±15.39 1,625 openings -0.5% 53.5% 107.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/121?window=24h) | 134 | 47.23% ±53.6 | −1.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/121?window=7d) | 1,432 | 90.63% ±16.4 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/121) | 1,625 | 90.62% ±15.4 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/121?window=all) | 1,625 | 90.62% ±15.4 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,625 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,333 2,100 HUNT\_COIN | 3.7% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $964 1,518 HUNT\_COIN | 5.4% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $646 1,017 HUNT\_COIN | 5.4% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $463 729 HUNT\_COIN | 5.2% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $201 317 HUNT\_COIN | 2.8% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.23× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $179 282 HUNT\_COIN | 2.5% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $130 205 HUNT\_COIN | 7.3% | 14 | 16.3 | 0.86× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $107 168 HUNT\_COIN | 11.9% | 28 | 32.5 | 0.86× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $95.47 150 HUNT\_COIN | 16.0% | 49 | 48.8 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $94.03 148 HUNT\_COIN | 15.7% | 46 | 48.8 | 0.94× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $77.64 122 HUNT\_COIN | 21.7% | 89 | 81.3 | 1.10× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.30 2.04 HUNT\_COIN | 1.1% | 225 | 243.8 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.62 0.98 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 331 | 325.0 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 422 | 406.3 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.08 0.13 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 406 | 406.3 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $1,333 2,100 HUNT\_COIN 66.96x 2026-11-09 07:59 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $1,333 2,100 HUNT\_COIN 66.96x 2026-11-07 11:08 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $1,333 2,100 HUNT\_COIN 66.96x 2026-11-04 20:45 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $964 1,518 HUNT\_COIN 48.40x 2026-11-04 20:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=121) [AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) Hidden $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.62 0.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC [AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) Hidden $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.62 0.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) Hidden $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $1.30 2.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC [AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) [Hulk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hulk) $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.13 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.13 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) Hidden $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) Hidden $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN $1.30 2.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.91 | 89.99% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.4% Classified 0.1% industrial 25.2% mil spec 0.3% classified 1.0% Ancient 3.0% restricted 35.0% #4b69ff 25.0% best hit $1,333 (66.96x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt