--- title: "10% Knife case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% Knife ($10.81) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.45% from 16 items with odds, observed 93.54% over 2,220 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/125 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/125) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% Knife A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/125?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/125?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/125) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/125?window=all) Price · $10.81 · 17.02 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.45% · EV $9.34 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.54% · 2,220 openings, odds method Variance · 22.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.08% ±76.01 147 openings 7 days · 89.48% ±21.10 1,908 openings 30 days · 93.54% ±19.56 2,220 openings since tracking started · 93.54% ±19.56 2,220 openings 6.5% 83.0% 159.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/125?window=24h) | 147 | 83.08% ±76.0 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/125?window=7d) | 1,908 | 89.48% ±21.1 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/125) | 2,220 | 93.54% ±19.6 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/125?window=all) | 2,220 | 93.54% ±19.6 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,220 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,597 4,091 HUNT\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,292 2,034 HUNT\_COIN | 6.9% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.80× | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $679 1,069 HUNT\_COIN | 7.3% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $344 542 HUNT\_COIN | 4.8% | 6 | 2.9 | 2.08× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 625 | $153 241 HUNT\_COIN | 2.6% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.41× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $132 208 HUNT\_COIN | 3.5% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.08× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $103 162 HUNT\_COIN | 3.3% | 8 | 6.7 | 1.20× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $82.36 130 HUNT\_COIN | 8.8% | 21 | 22.2 | 0.95× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $77.78 123 HUNT\_COIN | 16.7% | 45 | 44.4 | 1.01× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $71.61 113 HUNT\_COIN | 23.0% | 64 | 66.6 | 0.96× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN | 17.6% | 67 | 66.6 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) | 1 in 20 | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 0.4% | 120 | 111.0 | 1.08× | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $0.50 0.79 HUNT\_COIN | 0.8% | 325 | 333.0 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Hello MP9 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp9) | 20.0% | $0.30 0.48 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 462 | 444.0 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| Rush More sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-more) | 25.0% | $0.20 0.32 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 517 | 555.0 | 0.93× | | [Sticker \| skullz (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-skullz-glitter) | 25.0% | $0.10 0.16 HUNT\_COIN | 0.3% | 570 | 555.0 | 1.03× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $1,292 2,034 HUNT\_COIN 119.5x 2026-11-07 20:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-field-tested) [KIM](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/KIM) $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $1,292 2,034 HUNT\_COIN 119.5x 2026-11-04 05:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $679 1,069 HUNT\_COIN 62.82x 2026-11-10 03:17 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $679 1,069 HUNT\_COIN 62.82x 2026-11-09 01:04 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=125) [Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $0.50 0.79 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $0.50 0.79 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [Sticker | Hello MP9 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp9) Hidden $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $0.30 0.48 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [Sticker | Hello MP9 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp9) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $0.30 0.48 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [Sticker | Hello MP9 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp9) Hidden $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $0.30 0.48 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN 5.08x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $0.50 0.79 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [Sticker | skullz (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-skullz-glitter) Hidden $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [Sticker | Hello MP9 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp9) Hidden $10.81 17.02 HUNT\_COIN $0.30 0.48 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.81 | 86.45% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.8% #ffd700 0.2% Knives 1.0% covert knife 3.0% High Grade 5.0% #B0C3D9 15.0% #4B69FF 20.0% blue 25.0% other 25.0% best hit $1,292 (119.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.45 on average: an expected loss of $13.55 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt