---
title: "After Party case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "After Party ($18.11) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.48% from 16 items with odds, observed 85.75% over 351 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/128
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [After Party](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/128)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · After Party

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/128?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/128?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/128) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/128?window=all)

Price · $18.11 · 28.53 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 86.48% · EV $15.66 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.75% · 351 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 54 openings · below min

7 days · 86.45% ±28.15 279 openings

30 days · 85.75% ±25.10 351 openings

since tracking started · 85.75% ±25.10 351 openings

11.5% 76.3% 141.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/128?window=24h) | 54 | 76.19% ±64.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/128?window=7d) | 279 | 86.45% ±28.1 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/128) | 351 | 85.75% ±25.1 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/128?window=all) | 351 | 85.75% ±25.1 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 351 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $694 1,094 HUNT\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $625 984 HUNT\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $382 601 HUNT\_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $271 427 HUNT\_COIN | 8.6% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $183 289 HUNT\_COIN | 8.8% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $160 251 HUNT\_COIN | 10.2% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.42× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $110 173 HUNT\_COIN | 8.4% | 10 | 4.2 | 2.37× |
| [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $66.88 105 HUNT\_COIN | 9.4% | 12 | 7.7 | 1.55× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $50.22 79.09 HUNT\_COIN | 8.0% | 7 | 8.8 | 0.80× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $44.44 70 HUNT\_COIN | 7.8% | 9 | 9.7 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $37.23 58.63 HUNT\_COIN | 7.1% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $30.69 48.34 HUNT\_COIN | 6.4% | 7 | 11.4 | 0.61× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $26.03 40.99 HUNT\_COIN | 5.8% | 9 | 12.3 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $23.00 36.23 HUNT\_COIN | 5.9% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-well-worn) | 25.0% | $1.25 1.97 HUNT\_COIN | 2.0% | 86 | 87.8 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| KEi (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kei-holo) | 50.0% | $0.43 0.68 HUNT\_COIN | 1.4% | 180 | 175.5 | 1.03× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=128)

[Sticker | KEi (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kei-holo) Hidden $18.11 28.53 HUNT\_COIN $0.43 0.68 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) Hidden $18.11 28.53 HUNT\_COIN $23.00 36.23 HUNT\_COIN 1.27x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[Sticker | KEi (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kei-holo) Hidden $18.11 28.53 HUNT\_COIN $0.43 0.68 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[Sticker | KEi (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kei-holo) Hidden $18.11 28.53 HUNT\_COIN $0.43 0.68 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) Hidden $18.11 28.53 HUNT\_COIN $23.00 36.23 HUNT\_COIN 1.27x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) [Hulk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hulk) $18.11 28.53 HUNT\_COIN $44.44 70 HUNT\_COIN 2.45x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[Sticker | KEi (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kei-holo) Hidden $18.11 28.53 HUNT\_COIN $0.43 0.68 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-well-worn) Hidden $18.11 28.53 HUNT\_COIN $1.25 1.97 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[Sticker | KEi (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kei-holo) Hidden $18.11 28.53 HUNT\_COIN $0.43 0.68 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-well-worn) Hidden $18.11 28.53 HUNT\_COIN $1.25 1.97 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $18.11 | 86.48% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% covert 11.8% covert knife 1.0% Classified 2.2% classified 6.8% restricted 3.3% violet 25.0% other 50.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.48 on average: an expected loss of $13.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt