--- title: "5% Blaze case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% Blaze ($7.75) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.36% from 3 items with odds, observed 55.13% over 57 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/14 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% Blaze](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/14) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% Blaze A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/14?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/14?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/14) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/14?window=all) Price · $7.75 · 12.21 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.36% · EV $6.77 from 3 items Observed RTP, 30d · 55.13% · 57 openings, odds method Variance · 41.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 51 openings · below min 30 days · 57 openings · below min since tracking started · 57 openings · below min -0.5% 114.5% 229.5% **Small sample.** 57 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/14?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/14?window=7d) | 51 | 52.82% ±175.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/14) | 57 | 55.13% ±166.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/14?window=all) | 57 | 55.13% ±166.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 57 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $693 1,091 HUNT\_COIN | 51.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $34.71 54.67 HUNT\_COIN | 48.7% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.29× | | [Sticker \| NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 50 | 51.3 | 0.97× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=14) [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.75 12.21 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.75 12.21 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.75 12.21 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.75 12.21 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.75 12.21 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) [India4life4416](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/India4life4416) $7.75 12.21 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.75 12.21 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 23:48 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.75 12.21 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 23:48 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.75 12.21 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 23:48 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $7.75 12.21 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 23:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.75 | 87.36% | 3 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 0.5% milspec 9.5% other 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.36 on average: an expected loss of $12.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt