---
title: "Condition Zero case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Condition Zero ($1,056.50) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 8 items with odds, observed 72.80% over 12 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/142
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Condition Zero](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/142)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Condition Zero

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/142?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/142?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/142) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/142?window=all)

Price · $1,056.50 · 1,664 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $913.87 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 72.80% · 12 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 12 openings · below min

30 days · 12 openings · below min

since tracking started · 12 openings · below min

19.5% 72.8% 126.0%

**Small sample.** 12 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/142?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/142?window=7d) | 12 | 72.80% ±52.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/142) | 12 | 72.80% ±52.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/142?window=all) | 12 | 72.80% ±52.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) | 12.5% | $2,708 4,265 HUNT\_COIN | 37.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) | 12.5% | $2,110 3,324 HUNT\_COIN | 28.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) | 12.5% | $1,534 2,417 HUNT\_COIN | 21.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife) | 12.5% | $417 656 HUNT\_COIN | 5.7% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.67× |
| [★ Survival Knife knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife) | 12.5% | $154 242 HUNT\_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife) | 12.5% | $139 219 HUNT\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers) | 12.5% | $134 211 HUNT\_COIN | 1.8% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [★ Navaja Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife) | 12.5% | $115 181 HUNT\_COIN | 1.6% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) [Gremlin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Gremlin) $1,057 1,664 HUNT\_COIN $2,708 4,265 HUNT\_COIN 2.56x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $1,057 1,664 HUNT\_COIN $2,708 4,265 HUNT\_COIN 2.56x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) Hidden $1,057 1,664 HUNT\_COIN $1,534 2,417 HUNT\_COIN 1.45x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=142)

[★ Shadow Daggers knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers) Hidden $1,057 1,664 HUNT\_COIN $134 211 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $1,057 1,664 HUNT\_COIN $2,708 4,265 HUNT\_COIN 2.56x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife) Hidden $1,057 1,664 HUNT\_COIN $417 656 HUNT\_COIN 0.39x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers) Hidden $1,057 1,664 HUNT\_COIN $134 211 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife) Hidden $1,057 1,664 HUNT\_COIN $115 181 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) [Gremlin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Gremlin) $1,057 1,664 HUNT\_COIN $2,708 4,265 HUNT\_COIN 2.56x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife) Hidden $1,057 1,664 HUNT\_COIN $417 656 HUNT\_COIN 0.39x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife) Hidden $1,057 1,664 HUNT\_COIN $417 656 HUNT\_COIN 0.39x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife) Hidden $1,057 1,664 HUNT\_COIN $417 656 HUNT\_COIN 0.39x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife) Hidden $1,057 1,664 HUNT\_COIN $115 181 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,057 | 86.50% | 8 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 87.5% Immortal 12.5% best hit $2,708 (2.56x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt