--- title: "CTRL + W case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "CTRL + W ($4.24) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.38% from 8 items with odds, observed 87.01% over 773 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/144 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [CTRL + W](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/144) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · CTRL + W A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/144?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/144?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/144) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/144?window=all) Price · $4.24 · 6.68 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.38% · EV $3.66 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.01% · 773 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 88.57% ±5.22 604 openings 30 days · 87.01% ±4.61 773 openings since tracking started · 87.01% ±4.61 773 openings 81.0% 101.5% 122.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/144?window=24h) | 42 | 101.59% ±19.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/144?window=7d) | 604 | 88.57% ±5.22 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/144) | 773 | 87.01% ±4.61 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/144?window=all) | 773 | 87.01% ±4.61 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 773 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 12.5% | $8.06 12.7 HUNT\_COIN | 27.5% | 95 | 96.6 | 0.98× | | [SSG 08 \| Red Stone (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $6.60 10.4 HUNT\_COIN | 22.5% | 94 | 96.6 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hydro-strike-factory-new) | 12.5% | $5.84 9.2 HUNT\_COIN | 19.9% | 111 | 96.6 | 1.15× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $4.41 6.94 HUNT\_COIN | 15.0% | 88 | 96.6 | 0.91× | | [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-well-worn) | 12.5% | $2.22 3.49 HUNT\_COIN | 7.6% | 101 | 96.6 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| MUTiRiS (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mutiris-holo) | 12.5% | $1.10 1.74 HUNT\_COIN | 3.8% | 86 | 96.6 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| hardzao (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hardzao-gold) | 12.5% | $0.73 1.15 HUNT\_COIN | 2.5% | 111 | 96.6 | 1.15× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-warhawk-well-worn) | 12.5% | $0.34 0.54 HUNT\_COIN | 1.2% | 87 | 96.6 | 0.90× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=144) [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) Hidden $4.24 6.68 HUNT\_COIN $8.06 12.7 HUNT\_COIN 1.90x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [Sticker | hardzao (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hardzao-gold) Hidden $4.24 6.68 HUNT\_COIN $0.73 1.15 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [SSG 08 | Red Stone (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.24 6.68 HUNT\_COIN $6.60 10.4 HUNT\_COIN 1.56x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [SSG 08 | Red Stone (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.24 6.68 HUNT\_COIN $6.60 10.4 HUNT\_COIN 1.56x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hydro-strike-factory-new) [Ivantp10](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Ivantp10) $4.24 6.68 HUNT\_COIN $5.84 9.2 HUNT\_COIN 1.38x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) [Sr.Calavera](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sr.Calavera) $4.24 6.68 HUNT\_COIN $8.06 12.7 HUNT\_COIN 1.90x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) Hidden $4.24 6.68 HUNT\_COIN $8.06 12.7 HUNT\_COIN 1.90x 2026-11-11 02:03 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hydro-strike-factory-new) Hidden $4.24 6.68 HUNT\_COIN $5.84 9.2 HUNT\_COIN 1.38x 2026-11-11 02:03 UTC [SSG 08 | Red Stone (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.24 6.68 HUNT\_COIN $6.60 10.4 HUNT\_COIN 1.56x 2026-11-11 02:03 UTC [SSG 08 | Red Stone (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.24 6.68 HUNT\_COIN $6.60 10.4 HUNT\_COIN 1.56x 2026-11-11 02:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.24 | 86.38% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 12.5% consumer 12.5% uncommon 12.5% classified 12.5% Classified 12.5% other 25.0% mil spec 12.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.38 on average: an expected loss of $13.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt