--- title: "CT Locked case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "CT Locked ($65.24) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 16 items with odds, observed 86.52% over 45 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/145 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [CT Locked](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/145) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · CT Locked A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/145?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/145?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/145) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/145?window=all) Price · $65.24 · 103 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $56.43 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.52% · 45 openings, odds method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 37 openings · below min 30 days · 45 openings · below min since tracking started · 45 openings · below min -0.5% 113.8% 228.0% **Small sample.** 45 openings and 7.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/145?window=24h) | 4 | 105.12% ±122.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/145?window=7d) | 37 | 76.88% ±40.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/145) | 45 | 86.52% ±36.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/145?window=all) | 45 | 86.52% ±36.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $546 860 HUNT\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $444 699 HUNT\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $338 532 HUNT\_COIN | 6.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $265 418 HUNT\_COIN | 5.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Souvenir FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $174 273 HUNT\_COIN | 6.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $165 260 HUNT\_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $147 231 HUNT\_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $136 214 HUNT\_COIN | 7.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.74× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $129 203 HUNT\_COIN | 9.2% | 7 | 1.8 | 3.89× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $120 189 HUNT\_COIN | 10.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $94.44 149 HUNT\_COIN | 9.2% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $74.51 117 HUNT\_COIN | 7.9% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $57.00 89.78 HUNT\_COIN | 6.1% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [MAG-7 \| Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-factory-new) | 20.0% | $11.78 18.56 HUNT\_COIN | 4.2% | 11 | 9.0 | 1.22× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-monster-call-factory-new) | 20.0% | $4.33 6.82 HUNT\_COIN | 1.5% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 20.0% | $4.22 6.65 HUNT\_COIN | 1.5% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=145) [MAG-7 | Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-factory-new) Hidden $65.24 103 HUNT\_COIN $11.78 18.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-10 14:48 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $65.24 103 HUNT\_COIN $129 203 HUNT\_COIN 1.98x 2026-11-10 14:48 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-field-tested) Hidden $65.24 103 HUNT\_COIN $4.22 6.65 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-10 14:48 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) [PeitschenMeister](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/PeitschenMeister) $65.24 103 HUNT\_COIN $129 203 HUNT\_COIN 1.98x 2026-11-10 14:48 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $65.24 103 HUNT\_COIN $74.51 117 HUNT\_COIN 1.14x 2026-11-07 03:04 UTC [MAG-7 | Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-factory-new) Hidden $65.24 103 HUNT\_COIN $11.78 18.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-07 03:04 UTC [MAG-7 | Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-factory-new) [fine shi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/fine%20shi) $65.24 103 HUNT\_COIN $11.78 18.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-07 03:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $65.24 103 HUNT\_COIN $338 532 HUNT\_COIN 5.17x 2026-11-07 03:03 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $65.24 103 HUNT\_COIN $129 203 HUNT\_COIN 1.98x 2026-11-07 03:03 UTC [MAG-7 | Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-factory-new) Hidden $65.24 103 HUNT\_COIN $11.78 18.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-07 03:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $65.24 | 86.50% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 26.0% extraordinary 2.0% classified 29.0% covert 12.0% mil spec 11.0% Consumer Grade 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt