---
title: "AWP Me Daddy case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "AWP Me Daddy ($51.37) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.49% from 16 items with odds, observed 88.52% over 137 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/152
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [AWP Me Daddy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/152)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · AWP Me Daddy

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/152?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/152?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/152) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/152?window=all)

Price · $51.37 · 80.91 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 86.49% · EV $44.43 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.52% · 137 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 88.00% ±30.05 127 openings

30 days · 88.52% ±28.93 137 openings

since tracking started · 88.52% ±28.93 137 openings

17.5% 115.8% 214.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/152?window=24h) | 12 | 115.83% ±97.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/152?window=7d) | 127 | 88.00% ±30.0 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/152) | 137 | 88.52% ±28.9 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/152?window=all) | 137 | 88.52% ±28.9 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 137 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,597 2,516 HUNT\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $964 1,518 HUNT\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $856 1,347 HUNT\_COIN | 3.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $543 855 HUNT\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $361 569 HUNT\_COIN | 6.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $278 437 HUNT\_COIN | 6.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $188 295 HUNT\_COIN | 6.3% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.95× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $167 262 HUNT\_COIN | 7.5% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $128 202 HUNT\_COIN | 7.2% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $95.47 150 HUNT\_COIN | 10.7% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $77.64 122 HUNT\_COIN | 11.4% | 10 | 8.9 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $60.76 95.7 HUNT\_COIN | 10.3% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 12.5% | $55.61 87.59 HUNT\_COIN | 15.6% | 12 | 17.1 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $7.56 11.91 HUNT\_COIN | 3.4% | 30 | 27.4 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 20.0% | $3.32 5.23 HUNT\_COIN | 1.5% | 26 | 27.4 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.61 2.54 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 28 | 27.4 | 1.02× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [Sparven](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sparven) $51.37 80.91 HUNT\_COIN $856 1,347 HUNT\_COIN 16.65x 2026-11-07 22:51 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=152)

[StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.37 80.91 HUNT\_COIN $7.56 11.91 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC

[AWP | Silk Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-well-worn) Hidden $51.37 80.91 HUNT\_COIN $188 295 HUNT\_COIN 3.65x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $51.37 80.91 HUNT\_COIN $1.61 2.54 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) [PeitschenMeister](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/PeitschenMeister) $51.37 80.91 HUNT\_COIN $3.32 5.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.37 80.91 HUNT\_COIN $7.56 11.91 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $51.37 80.91 HUNT\_COIN $77.64 122 HUNT\_COIN 1.51x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $51.37 80.91 HUNT\_COIN $55.61 87.59 HUNT\_COIN 1.08x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) [PeitschenMeister](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/PeitschenMeister) $51.37 80.91 HUNT\_COIN $95.47 150 HUNT\_COIN 1.86x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.37 80.91 HUNT\_COIN $60.76 95.7 HUNT\_COIN 1.18x 2026-11-10 14:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.37 80.91 HUNT\_COIN $60.76 95.7 HUNT\_COIN 1.18x 2026-11-10 14:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $51.37 | 86.49% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 32.9% red 0.3% Classified 0.8% classified 26.0% #8847ff 20.0% Industrial Grade 20.0% best hit $856 (16.65x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.49 on average: an expected loss of $13.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt