---
title: "Bait God case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Bait God ($0.81) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.42% from 8 items with odds, observed 83.85% over 774 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/153
rendered: 2026-11-12T05:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Bait God](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/153)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Bait God

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/153?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/153?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/153) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/153?window=all)

Price · $0.81 · 1.28 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 86.42% · EV $0.70 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.85% · 774 openings, odds method

Variance · 138.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 21 openings · below min

7 days · 101.84% ±98.68 548 openings

30 days · 83.85% ±83.03 774 openings

since tracking started · 83.85% ±83.03 774 openings

-0.5% 278.5% 557.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/153?window=24h) | 21 | 52.86% ±504.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/153?window=7d) | 548 | 101.84% ±98.7 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/153) | 774 | 83.85% ±83.0 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/153?window=all) | 774 | 83.85% ±83.0 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 774 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 748 | $262 413 HUNT\_COIN | 49.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $1.61 2.54 HUNT\_COIN | 22.6% | 72 | 76.3 | 0.94× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 12.5% | $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN | 7.0% | 83 | 96.8 | 0.86× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $0.33 0.52 HUNT\_COIN | 5.9% | 110 | 96.8 | 1.14× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 12.5% | $0.27 0.43 HUNT\_COIN | 4.9% | 110 | 96.8 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN | 2.9% | 86 | 96.8 | 0.89× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 17.5% | $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN | 4.1% | 123 | 135.4 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 22.5% | $0.08 0.13 HUNT\_COIN | 2.6% | 189 | 174.2 | 1.09× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN $262 413 HUNT\_COIN 322.7x 2026-11-07 07:14 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=153)

[Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.27 0.43 HUNT\_COIN 0.34x 2026-11-12 01:43 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN 0.20x 2026-11-12 01:43 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.13 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-12 01:43 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN $1.61 2.54 HUNT\_COIN 1.98x 2026-11-12 01:43 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN $1.61 2.54 HUNT\_COIN 1.98x 2026-11-12 01:43 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-well-worn) [cheese](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/cheese) $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN 0.48x 2026-11-12 01:43 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [Jey1D](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Jey1D) $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.33 0.52 HUNT\_COIN 0.41x 2026-11-11 22:52 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.27 0.43 HUNT\_COIN 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-well-worn) [LajhaTor | Bloodycase.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/LajhaTor%20%7C%20Bloodycase.) $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.39 0.62 HUNT\_COIN 0.48x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.33 0.52 HUNT\_COIN 0.41x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.81 | 86.42% | 8 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Industrial Grade 10.0% other 12.5% Common 30.0% Consumer Grade 12.5% industrial 35.0% best hit $262 (322.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.42 on average: an expected loss of $13.58 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt