--- title: "Headshot Machine case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Headshot Machine ($10.25) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.47% from 8 items with odds, observed 86.71% over 440 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/164 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Headshot Machine](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/164) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Headshot Machine A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/164?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/164?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/164) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/164?window=all) Price · $10.25 · 16.14 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.47% · EV $8.86 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.71% · 440 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 100.67% ±27.28 345 openings 30 days · 86.71% ±24.16 440 openings since tracking started · 86.71% ±24.16 440 openings -0.5% 103.5% 207.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/164?window=24h) | 24 | 103.24% ±103.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/164?window=7d) | 345 | 100.67% ±27.3 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/164) | 440 | 86.71% ±24.2 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/164?window=all) | 440 | 86.71% ±24.2 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 440 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $106 167 HUNT\_COIN | 6.0% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.82× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $101 158 HUNT\_COIN | 8.5% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $97.09 153 HUNT\_COIN | 11.0% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $90.08 142 HUNT\_COIN | 12.7% | 9 | 5.5 | 1.64× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $86.92 137 HUNT\_COIN | 17.2% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $83.33 131 HUNT\_COIN | 18.8% | 5 | 8.8 | 0.57× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $81.25 128 HUNT\_COIN | 25.2% | 15 | 12.1 | 1.24× | | [Sticker \| Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) | 90.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN | 0.6% | 396 | 396.0 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=164) [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $10.25 16.14 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $10.25 16.14 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $10.25 16.14 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $10.25 16.14 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $10.25 16.14 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) [Sr.Calavera](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sr.Calavera) $10.25 16.14 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [LEZAS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/LEZAS) $10.25 16.14 HUNT\_COIN $81.25 128 HUNT\_COIN 7.93x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $10.25 16.14 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $10.25 16.14 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $10.25 16.14 HUNT\_COIN $90.08 142 HUNT\_COIN 8.79x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.25 | 86.47% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.5% classified 0.8% rare 1.0% restricted 2.8% Rare 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.47 on average: an expected loss of $13.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt